Podcast trade ideas

We Study Billionaires

TIP861: Reddit (RDDT): Record Cash Flow, Collapsing Share Price w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley

Nov 15, 202614h

Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley revisit Reddit (RDDT), whose stock fell roughly 30% after Q3 2026 despite 50%+ revenue growth, because management warned Google AI answers are cutting traffic and daily users could shrink double digits next quarter. Shawn, a shareholder at ~$105 average cost, says he's a happy buyer below $100 on ~17x operating profit, while Kyle likes the business but wants more time before adding; both stress Google-dependency risk as the key variable. They also note Shawn owns Alphabet and passed on AppLovin.

Positions · 3

• 1:06:04RDDTLongShawn says below $100 per share he is a happy buyer, arguing ~17x operating profit for a 40%-growth, 90%+ gross margin, debt-free business needs no heroic assumptions. — Shawn O'Malley+0.4% since episode
  Why this trade

  “below a $100 per share. Personally, I'm a happy buyer.” — Shawn O'Malley

  1. Speaker claims fair value is lower than a year ago but that under $100 he would buy more.
  2. Shares trade near $100 with ~40% guided growth and roughly $1B+ annual free cash flow, so valuation is undemanding on owner's earnings.
  3. Result: stay long and add below $100, watching logged-in users and Google traffic.
• 28:51GOOGLLongShawn says he is an Alphabet shareholder 'too proudly' and views Google and Reddit as mutually dependent, with Google still crawling Reddit's content heavily. — Shawn O'Malley+0.1% since episode
  Why this trade

  “As I mentioned, I'm an Alphabet shareholder too proudly.” — Shawn O'Malley

  1. Shawn states he proudly owns Alphabet shares alongside Reddit.
  2. Google's AI answers rely on human conversation content like Reddit's, supporting its search franchise.
  3. Result: continued long ownership of Alphabet as the traffic landlord in the dynamic.
• 7:55APPAvoidShawn says he is 'pretty glad we decided to pass on' AppLovin, using it as the cautionary example of how fast growth deceleration can revalue high-multiple tech stocks. — Shawn O'Malley-0.1% since episode
  Why this trade

  “AppLovin was one that I'm pretty glad we decided to pass on” — Shawn O'Malley

  1. Shawn uses AppLovin as the illustration of a stock punished when growth decelerates from 60% to 50%.
  2. He explicitly states relief at having passed on the investment.
  3. Result: an avoid stance rather than a position.

Ideas · 1

• 1:08:05RDDTLongKyle calls it a good, compelling business with a formidable user-side moat but says open questions on Google dependency and user growth mean holding, or possibly adding lower, is sensible. — Kyle Grieve+0.4% since episode
  Why this trade

  “I still think it's in a really, really good position. I still do think though... there's still just a lot of questions for me.” — Kyle Grieve

  1. Kyle identifies Google's AI answers cutting off click-through traffic as a real, current risk, not a distant one.
  2. He still sees user-side network effects, 90%+ gross margins, and diversification of advertisers as durable strengths.
  3. Result: leave the position alone and consider adding if next quarter is uglier at a lower price.

Odd Lots

How Wall Street Is Bracing For the Post-Jensen Huang Nvidia Era

Nov 14, 202630h

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon explains why he downgraded NVIDIA to market-perform and halved his price target after CEO Jensen Huang's dismissal over an undisclosed relationship with a subordinate, citing key-man risk, a leadership vacuum in supply-chain handshake deals and long-term roadmap decisions, and escalating China-hawk investigations. He still likes the data-center story and calls the stock cheap but says he cannot advocate buying the dip, while noting competitors (AMD, Broadcom, Google TPUs) benefit as customers diversify.

Positions · 1

• 9:37NVDAAvoidRasgon downgraded NVDA and halved his target because Jensen Huang's ouster creates key-man and road-map risk plus a wave of investigations, making it too hard to advocate owning the stock despite a cheap multiple. — Stacy Rasgon-1.3% since episode
  Why this trade

  “if I can't sit in front of a client and advocate, I think absolutely you should be buying this dip. It's hard for me to maintain the buy on it.” — Stacy Rasgon

  1. Huang was fired over conduct, and Rasgon says the stock faces ongoing news flow, subpoenas and government pressure.
  2. NVIDIA's supply chain and customer commitments were built on Huang's personal handshakes and long-term architecture bets, which a new CEO may not sustain.
  3. He cut the rating and target rather than recommend buying the dip, though near-term numbers look intact.

Ideas · 3

• 30:55AMDLongRasgon notes AMD has been running on the belief a weaker long-term NVIDIA roadmap strengthens rivals, with GPU sales implied to nearly triple year over year into the low $40 billions in 2027. — Stacy Rasgon-1.3% since episode
  Why this trade

  “AMD is, if you back into it, they're kind of suggesting that their GPU sales will probably almost triple year over year” — Stacy Rasgon

  1. He says AMD's roadmap is getting better and customers increasingly diversify away from NVIDIA.
  2. AMD has guided to implied GPU revenue near the low $40 billions as it takes share.
  3. This makes AMD a relative beneficiary of NVIDIA's leadership turmoil, though he frames it as observation rather than a formal call.
• 30:40AVGOLongRasgon flags Broadcom as one of the diversified AI-chip winners, citing company guidance for data-center revenue to double to ~$115B in 2027 and double again in 2028 as custom-chip customers expand. — Stacy Rasgon-1.1% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Broadcom has suggested that their data center revenues will double year over year in 'twenty seven to like 115,000,000,000 and will double again in 2028” — Stacy Rasgon

  1. He says customers like OpenAI, Meta and Google are using multiple chip sources beyond NVIDIA.
  2. Broadcom's custom silicon business benefits, with management guiding data-center revenue to roughly $115B in 2027 and double again in 2028.
  3. Rasgon frames competitors as strong in the wake of NVIDIA's turmoil, an implicit relative long.
• 29:58GOOGLLongRasgon notes Google is starting to sell TPUs externally to more customers, broadening its AI-chip franchise as buyers diversify away from NVIDIA. — Stacy Rasgon-0.5% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Google is now starting to sell TPUs to on a secondary basis as well. So, that is happening.” — Stacy Rasgon

  1. He says more customers are using TPUs and Google is now selling them on a secondary basis.
  2. That expands Alphabet's AI silicon beyond internal use at a time rivals' roadmap confidence is shaken.
  3. Passing mention only, so low conviction and not an explicit buy.

All-In Podcast

Jensen Ousted as Nvidia CEO: "Spy" Scandal, Export Restrictions, Market Impact

Nov 14, 202636h

▶Watch on YouTube

Positions · 1

• ▶ 1:12:45ANTHROPICLongI think Anthropic is building the Microsoft killer and every SaaS company killer by bundling — Speaker 0+0.2% since episode
  Why this trade

  “I think Anthropic is building the Microsoft killer and every SaaS company killer by bundling” — Speaker 0

  1. Jason argues Anthropic is rapidly bundling enterprise/SaaS products onto a $20-50/month subscription, making the offering stickier and stealing share from incumbents.
  2. The IPO raises a huge war chest (~$90B) and is 6x oversubscribed, with analysts modeling a bull case far above the $1.4T target.
  3. If the winner-take-all recursive-self-improvement story is even partly true, allocating to the IPO is a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Ideas · 5

• ▶ 37:28NVDAShortWith Jensen gone, Nvidia loses its 'velocity' — the annual chip-tapeout tempo that is its real moat — and the 'Bank of Nvidia' capital engine that funds the AI economy may slow or stop. — Speaker 1-0.9% since episode
  Why this trade

  “if you take him out of the picture, there's just nobody comparable” — Speaker 1

  1. Sacks argues Nvidia's advantage is rapid annual iteration (Ampere→Hopper→Blackwell→Vera Rubin), and Jensen was fundamental to that pace.
  2. Chamath/Friedberg note Jensen personally directed capital/guarantees to startups and data centers ('the beating heart of the AI economy').
  3. Without him, growth and the AI capex flywheel slow, pressuring the stock and broader AI trade.
• ▶ 58:38PANWAvoidChamath names CEO Nikesh Arora as a top external Nvidia CEO candidate ('best capital allocator of the last five or ten years'), so Palo Alto faces key-man/leadership risk if he's poached. — Speaker 3-0.3% since episode
  Why this trade

  “the most obvious external candidate is Rene Haas from Arm and Nikesh Arora from Palo Alto Networks” — Speaker 3

  1. Chamath says the obvious external CEO candidate for Nvidia is Nikesh Arora from Palo Alto Networks.
  2. Arora is described as the standout public-market capital allocator of the past decade, central to Palo Alto's execution.
  3. His potential departure is a negative headline/leadership risk for PANW even without a direct sell call.
• ▶ 58:52ARMAvoidChamath flags Arm CEO Rene Haas as an obvious external candidate to run Nvidia, creating poaching/key-man risk for Arm at a moment it can ill-afford leadership churn. — Speaker 3-0.6% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Rene, because he worked at NVIDIA for many, many years, worked directly for Jensen and has been running ARM successfully” — Speaker 3

  1. Chamath names Rene Haas as a leading external Nvidia CEO candidate given his long tenure at Nvidia under Jensen.
  2. Haas has been 'running ARM successfully' and is steeped in chips, making him attractive.
  3. Losing him would be a negative for Arm's momentum, so avoid until the succession resolves.
• ▶ 1:17:18MSFTLongJason argues Microsoft, the historic bundler, now must build a competing product and go head-to-head with Anthropic or risk losing the entire Office franchise. — Speaker 0-0.5% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Microsoft has to create a competing product and go head to head against them or they're gonna lose the Office franchise” — Speaker 0

  1. Jason says Anthropic is bundling meetings, sheets, legal and finance — the core Office/SaaS surface — into one subscription.
  2. He explicitly says this means Microsoft 'has to create a competing product and go head to head against them or they're gonna lose the Office franchise.'
  3. Microsoft's huge Office franchise is at risk, forcing a competitive response that frames the stock's outlook.
• ▶ 39:04Chinese AI chips / HuaweiLongSacks argues that if Nvidia is slowed for 2-3 years, Huawei catches up far faster, especially as China's government forces its market toward Huawei chips (latest DeepSeek trained exclusively on Huawei). — Speaker 1–
  Why this trade

  “If Nvidia is massively slowed down ... it's mostly will help Huawei” — Speaker 1

  1. Sacks describes Huawei closing the frontier gap via CloudMatrix rack-scale networking (384 chips) and energy advantage.
  2. He says if Nvidia is 'crippled for two or three years,' Huawei will catch up much faster; the CCP wants to indigenize chips regardless.
  3. Watch Huawei-relevant suppliers/foundries rather than a single US-listed ticker — a theme-level long.

BiggerPockets Money

How Much Is the Average American Worth? Net Worth by Age (2026)

Nov 13, 202654h

Ideas · 4

• 24:02Broad fixed-income / high-yield lending exposure (e.g., bond ETFs)LongScott argues 'yield is everywhere' — you can earn ~7.25% lending to an 800-credit-score borrower — making income-generating lending more attractive versus equity risk. — Scott Trench–
  Why this trade

  “all of a sudden, yield is everywhere... you can lend somebody with an 800 credit score who's buying a house at 7.25% interest for thirty years. Like, that's a real opportunity in today's market.” — Scott Trench

  1. Scott observes high risk-free-ish yields in 2026 (7.25% 30-year mortgage lending to strong borrowers).
  2. That implies attractive returns in fixed income / lending instruments relative to taking equity risk.
  3. Resulting trade: favor yield-generating lending/fixed-income exposure over lower-yield equity bets.
• 18:31SPCXLongScott cites SpaceX (alongside Anthropic and OpenAI) as a place where concentrated wealth gains will accrue, adding to inequality. — Scott Trench-1.5% since episode
  Why this trade

  “I think you're gonna see those wealth gains concentrated in places like SpaceX, like Anthropix IPO, when happens here, like GPTs, when that comes out” — Scott Trench

  1. Scott predicts future wealth gains will concentrate in private giants like SpaceX and AI IPOs.
  2. Private ownership of such names is increasingly a source of top-tier wealth.
  3. Result: a bullish lean on these private names as wealth-concentration drivers (not an explicit buy call).
• 18:31OPENAILongScott names OpenAI ('GPTs') as a future wealth-concentration event when it comes out, implying a bullish view on the AI leader. — Scott Trench-0.9% since episode
  Why this trade

  “like Anthropix IPO, when happens here, like GPTs, when that comes out” — Scott Trench

  1. Scott lists OpenAI/GPTs among the private names driving outsized wealth gains.
  2. That reflects a positive view on OpenAI's value trajectory.
  3. Result: a low-conviction long lean, not an explicit recommendation.
• 18:31MSFTLongOpenAI → A bullish OpenAI view maps to Microsoft via its equity stake in OpenAI and Azure AI exposure, a listed beneficiary. — Scott Trench+1.3% since episode
  Why this trade

  “like GPTs, when that comes out, and I think that that's gonna bifurcate this.” — Scott Trench

  1. Scott implicitly views OpenAI favorably as a wealth driver.
  2. Microsoft holds a significant equity stake in OpenAI and provides Azure infrastructure.
  3. Result: MSFT as the most direct listed proxy for that OpenAI-positive view.

Prof G Markets

The Trillion-Dollar Cover-Up: What Washington Knew About Jensen Huang

Nov 12, 202677h

Ideas · 5

• 19:22NVDAAvoidMcGuire warns of big fallout for Nvidia and its stock from the investigation and governance scandal, though he sees no lost sales since every chip made is still bought. — Chris McGuire-1.1% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Obviously, there's gonna be big fallout for NVIDIA generally and their stock about this whole investigation” — Chris McGuire

  1. McGuire says the Mega Speed/Huang investigation will produce 'big fallout for NVIDIA generally and their stock.'
  2. He notes 20% of traders on Polymarket-style odds think Huang will be out by year-end, adding leadership uncertainty.
  3. Resulting view: near-term headline/governance risk argues for caution even if underlying chip demand is intact.
• 19:00NVDALongMcGuire argues export controls have cost Nvidia exactly zero sales because voracious US hyperscaler demand (SpaceX, Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft) absorbs every chip. — Chris McGuire-1.1% since episode
  Why this trade

  “the export controls so far, I would argue, have cost NVIDIA exactly zero sales” — Chris McGuire

  1. He claims 'the export controls so far... have cost NVIDIA exactly zero sales' as all chips are bought.
  2. If flows to Chinese cutouts are cut, Musk, Jassy, Meta and hyperscalers take the supply instead.
  3. Therefore any China-related selloff overstates fundamental demand risk.
• 25:06ANTHROPICAvoidKharazian's data shows Anthropic enterprise spend growth falling to ~0.5% month-over-month with token prices collapsing, an unproven growth story ahead of its IPO. — Ed Elson-3.0% since episode
  Why this trade

  “OpenAI's token spend growth fell to 2.1%, and Anthropix fell to point 5%” — Ed Elson

  1. Ramp data shows Anthropic token spend growth fell to 0.5% in October and enterprise engineering spend is plateauing.
  2. Revenue is highly concentrated in a handful of correlated VC-backed startups, a fragility risk.
  3. He questions whether 'recurring' ARR is real when customers shift spend easily — a cautious stance into the IPO.
• 25:06OPENAIAvoidKharazian notes OpenAI token spend growth slowed to 2.1% and prices per million tokens fell ~15% as competition from SpaceX AI and Meta intensifies. — Ed Elson-0.4% since episode
  Why this trade

  “OpenAI's token spend growth fell to 2.1%” — Ed Elson

  1. Ramp's AI index shows OpenAI token spend growth down to 2.1% month-over-month and roughly flat since August.
  2. Price war is compressing revenue per token, and new rivals with compute advantages are emerging.
  3. This points to slowing monetization momentum for the private lab.
• 28:49METALongKharazian flags Meta as a likely future AI-spend share gainer given its compute access, expanding the race beyond OpenAI and Anthropic. — Ara Karazian+0.8% since episode
  Why this trade

  “That's gonna be Meta. They're not big players in terms of AI spend today by businesses.” — Ara Karazian

  1. He says the two-way OpenAI/Anthropic race will become a four-way race including SpaceX AI and Meta.
  2. Meta's compute access gives it an advantage in building frontier models and winning enterprise share.
  3. Meta is therefore a structural beneficiary of AI competition and price collapse.

We Study Billionaires

TIP860: Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP.TO): Irreplaceable Moat, Unproven Compounding w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley

Nov 12, 202686h

Kyle Grieve and Sean O'Malley analyze Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.TO), calling it a wide-moat railroad with an irreplaceable three-country network but unproven capital efficiency after the $31B Kansas City Southern deal. Kyle's valuation lands around $111-$165 per share versus a ~$122 price, implying roughly 7% annual returns, so both hosts explicitly pass on the stock and prefer redeploying capital into Uber; they note indirect rail exposure via Berkshire's BNSF.

Positions · 3

• 1:18:56CPAvoidA wide-moat, hard-to-disrupt railway, but ROIC has dropped to ~7% post-merger and the stock trades near intrinsic value, so the hosts pass. — Kyle Grieve–
  Why this trade

  “with the company's share price being right around intrinsic value, I'm perfectly fine taking a pass on this business.” — Kyle Grieve

  1. Kyle's base case yields ~$165 and bear case $111 versus a ~$122 share price, roughly 7% annual return.
  2. That falls short of their 12% hurdle rate and offers little edge.
  3. Both hosts explicitly say they are fine taking a pass on the stock.
• 1:19:58UBERLongUber is cited as the example of entrenched oligopoly discipline producing billions in free cash flow, and Sean prefers adding capital there over CPKC. — Sean O'Malley-1.4% since episode
  Why this trade

  “I would be much more excited for example, to put more capital into a company that we're really excited about like Uber instead.” — Sean O'Malley

  1. Sean argues Uber and Lyft settled market share and stopped subsidizing rides, lifting take rates and free cash flow.
  2. He contrasts this proven compounding with CPKC's unproven returns.
  3. Sean says he would be much more excited to put more capital into Uber instead.
• 1:19:58BRKBLongThey already hold indirect railroad exposure through Berkshire's ownership of BNSF, which they call a decent business generating tons of cash despite ~3% growth. — Sean O'Malley+0.1% since episode
  Why this trade

  “we have our indirect railroad exposure through Berkshire Hathaway and their ownership of BNSF” — Sean O'Malley

  1. Sean notes the intrinsic value portfolio owns Berkshire, which owns BNSF.
  2. BNSF generates steady cash for decades but grows revenue and pre-tax income under 3%.
  3. They prefer this existing rail exposure over adding CPKC.

Ideas · 1

• 1:09:07NSCAvoidUnion Pacific's announced plan to merge with Norfolk Southern would create a coast-to-coast rival, a risk CPKC has asked regulators to reject. — Kyle Grieve–
  Why this trade

  “Union Pacific is one of those two giant Western railroads and Norfolk Southern is one of the two biggest railroads in the East.” — Kyle Grieve

  1. Kyle says a UP-Norfolk Southern merger would put a dent in CPKC's growth story.
  2. Regulators won't decide until sometime in 2027.
  3. This is discussed as a competitive risk, not a standalone trade.

The Money Guy Show

The Millionaire Playbook Just Got an Upgrade + Live Q&A

Nov 11, 2026100h

This episode is a book-launch and live Q&A show with no direct stock recommendations; the hosts discuss saving, career-change timing, car financing and housing, and react to headlines. The most market-relevant commentary concerns the AI-driven equity selloff: Brian Preston flags NVIDIA national-security concerns and political risk around data centers but expects long-term US tech leadership to prevail, while Bo Hanson says he ignores daily volatility and keeps buying. They also view softer housing data as a buyer's opportunity and flag record-high car payments as a wealth destroyer.

Positions · 1

• 42:22Broad US equities (market index)LongBo says he ignores daily swings and stays a perpetual buyer, letting markets move up and to the right over the long term. — Bo Hanson–
  Why this trade

  “I don't care if it's down 1,800 points a day... I am someone who's gonna always be buying” — Bo Hanson

  1. Claims markets go up and down but over the long term move up into the right.
  2. Therefore he never times entries and always keeps buying.
  3. Resulting stance: stay invested regardless of 1,800-point Dow moves.

Ideas · 2

• 41:15NVDALongBrian treats the NVIDIA national-security scare and anti-AI/data-center politics as noise that will likely prove 'much ado about nothing,' keeping the US tech edge intact long term. — Brian Preston-9.6% since episode
  Why this trade

  “the poster child for what's driving, especially here in The United States, is that we have an... A technology edge” — Brian Preston

  1. Claims US must stay on the cutting edge of AI and policy fears will fade once security experts weigh in.
  2. NVIDIA is the 'poster child' driving US technology leadership.
  3. Conclusion: AI selloff is a teaching moment, not a reason to sell long-term tech exposure.
• 44:39US housing market (homeownership)LongWith buyers pulling back and sellers anchored, Brian sees a proactive buyer's opportunity to hunt for deals below asking in the housing market. — Brian Preston–
  Why this trade

  “if I'm a buyer in this marketplace, you gotta be proactive... offer a price that's well below what they're asking” — Brian Preston

  1. Says buyers have had enough while sellers anchor on Zillow/Redfin values and sub-4% mortgages.
  2. That imbalance favors selective buyers able to negotiate.
  3. Advises offering well below asking to find the 'needle in the haystack.'

Prof G Markets

Nvidia Has Lost $1.5 Trillion — Is The Worst Still To Come?

Nov 11, 2026101h

DA Davidson's Gil Luria says Nvidia carries the highest risk among semis given the Jensen Huang scandal and possible China funneling, while favoring Broadcom, AMD and Micron as better risk-reward semis; he explicitly says stay away from CoreWeave, whose economics are a negative carry trade. Host Ed Elson sees the Anthropic IPO price cut as evidence AI euphoria is ending, and economist Justin Wolfers expects more Fed rate hikes as inflation proves persistent.

Positions · 5

• 11:32NVDAAvoidLuria says Nvidia is now the highest-risk semi because of investigation and succession uncertainty, so it must move down the priority list despite the cheap multiple. — Gil Luria-8.3% since episode
  Why this trade

  “NVIDIA just has to go down the priority list based on the fact that you have this much uncertainty right now.” — Gil Luria

  1. Luria argues the scandal could reveal Asia revenue funneled to China plus no succession plan for Jensen Huang.
  2. That uncertainty raises the risk premium on NVDA relative to other semis.
  3. Result: deprioritize Nvidia versus Broadcom, AMD and Micron.
• 10:38AVGOLongLuria calls out Broadcom as a semi with lower risk than Nvidia and still high reward, growing 50-100% next year at a low multiple. — Gil Luria-2.0% since episode
  Why this trade

  “There are other semis where the risk is lower and the reward is also high. Broadcom, AMD, Micron.” — Gil Luria

  1. Luria claims the data center buildout continues and Broadcom grows 50-100% next year.
  2. Broadcom trades at a low forward multiple on that growth and lacks Nvidia's scandal exposure.
  3. Result: better risk-reward long versus Nvidia.
• 10:56AMDLongLuria names AMD among semis with lower risk and high reward, growing 50-100% next year without Nvidia's specific scandal risk. — Gil Luria-4.7% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Broadcom, AMD, Micron. These are also stocks trading at a very big premium to the market... and therefore have a very low multiple” — Gil Luria

  1. Luria claims healthy data center demand supports 50-100% growth for these semis.
  2. AMD trades at a low multiple on that growth and avoids the Nvidia-specific investigation.
  3. Result: favorable risk-reward long.
• 10:56MULongLuria cites Micron as a lower-risk, high-reward semi growing 50-100% next year if the data center buildout continues. — Gil Luria-1.1% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Broadcom, AMD, Micron. These are also stocks trading at a very big premium to the market” — Gil Luria

  1. Luria claims memory demand from the AI buildout drives strong growth.
  2. Micron trades at a low multiple on that growth and lacks Nvidia's scandal exposure.
  3. Result: better risk-reward long than Nvidia.
• 15:21CRWVAvoidLuria says CoreWeave earns 3% on investment against a 9%-plus cost of capital even in the best compute market ever, and the Nvidia bailout put disappears without Jensen Huang — stay away. — Gil Luria-9.4% since episode
  Why this trade

  “So, yes, absolutely stay away from CoreWeave.” — Gil Luria

  1. Luria calculates negative carry: 3% return on investment versus over 9% cost of capital.
  2. CoreWeave says it can no longer tap unsecured debt and must raise equity or prepayments.
  3. With Jensen Huang possibly out, the implied Nvidia backstop goes away — avoid the stock.

Ideas · 1

• 34:03ANTHROPICAvoidElson argues Anthropic's IPO price cut to $1.3T from $2T shows public-market AI exuberance is fading and the era of AI euphoria is ending. — Ed Elson-3.0% since episode
  Why this trade

  “this new IPO price is evidence that the era of AI euphoria is about to come to an end” — Ed Elson

  1. Elson notes Anthropic lowered its IPO target from $2T to $1.3T, a ~40% cut.
  2. Listed AI names like Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron and SK Hynix have seen multiples halved.
  3. Result: private AI valuations must converge toward public comps.

Odd Lots

The Perfect Storm That Clobbered Hedge Funds

Nov 11, 2026102h

Ideas · 4

• 43:01CRWVLongBall notes the neocloud index is down 70% and massively oversold with very negative positioning, implying the sell-off was overdone and positioning has now cleaned up. — Michael Ball-12.1% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Also again, they're massively oversold. That index is down 70%. These are all sitting very negative positioning as well” — Michael Ball

  1. Ball says neocloud names are massively oversold, down 70%, and sitting on very negative, expensive-to-hold positioning.
  2. He sees room for 'new guys to step in' once positioning stabilizes and flags CoreWeave's earnings as the next catalyst.
  3. Tilt is toward stabilization/mean-reversion rather than an explicit buy recommendation.
• 42:29IRENLongBall flags IREN's strong compute demand and better-than-feared free cash flow from customer prepayments, though he warns of leverage and rate sensitivity. — Michael Ball-21.1% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Iren came out last week and said basically the prepayments from customers was quite good. So the free cash flow is looking better for that particular name.” — Michael Ball

  1. Ball says IREN's prepayments were good, so free cash flow is improving and borrowing needs may fall.
  2. He calls its compute demand growth 'very impressive' but notes lots of leverage and rate sensitivity.
  3. Overall view that the drawdown may have been overdone rather than a firm buy call.
• 47:22NVDALongBall argues the AI trade is now bigger than any single company and he sees nothing making Nvidia's cornerstone role shaky, treating recent moves as mechanical short-covering rather than narrative change. — Michael Ball-8.1% since episode
  Why this trade

  “as the cornerstone, and I'm not yet seeing anything that would make me think that's shaky” — Michael Ball

  1. Ball says the AI trade 'has become bigger than the Anthropics and Nvidia's' and the cornerstone doesn't look shaky.
  2. He attributes the prior day's rally to a squeeze of shorts and put-covering, i.e., mechanical rather than narrative-driven.
  3. Supports staying constructive on Nvidia as central AI infrastructure despite the Jensen news.
• 52:17Oil (Brent crude)AvoidBall sees a positive barrel backdrop as geopolitical risk premium fades and inventories build, though he cautions the path is bumpy and oversold. — Michael Ball–
  Why this trade

  “as far as oil, like the backdrop is actually positive if we can sort of end this kind of overhang of geopolitical risk premium” — Michael Ball

  1. Ball says the oil backdrop is positive if the geopolitical risk premium fades, with JPMorgan raising its surplus estimate.
  2. Crack spreads and European gas have fallen, easing the energy pulse into core CPI.
  3. Suggests skew has come down, but he notes oversold conditions after a $10-15 move, so the view is cautious/avoid on further upside.

Invest Like the Best

Zach Reitano - Building Ro and Why Healthcare Should Be 50% of GDP - [Invest Like the Best, EP.500]

Nov 11, 2026102h

Positions · 1

• 12:23RoLongReitano says Ro is the leading GLP-1 provider, 10x'd revenue to a $3B run rate with 30% fewer people, and is building a vertically integrated patient-centric care platform riding three tailwinds. — Zach Reitano–
  Why this trade

  “Roe is the leading provider of GLP-1s in the country. We're probably signing up two, three, four, five times as many patients every single day as our competition.” — Zach Reitano

  1. Claims Ro signs up multiple times more GLP-1 patients daily than competitors and grew from $250M to $3B run rate.
  2. Positions Ro as demand aggregator integrating directly with pharma and bypassing PBMs.
  3. Result is a bullish long view on Ro as the scaled GLP-1 distribution platform (private company).

Ideas · 3

• 14:55NVOLongReitano says GLP-1 inventors should capture more margin than those scaling access, and DTC pricing lets pharma keep gross profit while prices fall and volumes surge. — Zach Reitano+1.2% since episode
  Why this trade

  “I think the inventors of GLP-1s should earn more, should grab more margin than the people who scale access to that.” — Zach Reitano

  1. Claims pharma going direct collapses the list-price-to-net gap and removes PBMs/insurers.
  2. Novo is one of the two leading GLP-1 manufacturers Ro partners with and whose volume is driving Ro's growth.
  3. Resulting posture is constructive on the drug inventors as volumes outstrip price cuts.
• 7:50LLYLongReitano cites Lilly's earnings as proof that GLP-1 price cuts are more than offset by volume, calling the class the most popular drug of our lifetime with room to 50%+ penetration. — Zach Reitano+0.7% since episode
  Why this trade

  “If you look at Lilly's earnings, prices come down, volume far outstrips it.” — Zach Reitano

  1. Claims GLP-1 demand is huge and growing, with majority of growth in cash pay.
  2. Notes that at Lilly, 'prices come down, volume far outstrips it.'
  3. Implies the drug makers benefit even as unit prices fall.
• 24:27GOOGLLongWaymo / driverless cars → Reitano argues driverless cars are 10-20x safer than human drivers and that regulators impeding them should bear a 'body count'; Waymo is the leading scaled robotaxi operator. — Zach Reitano-0.1% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Driverless cars in pockets have proven to be 10, 20 times safer than a human driver.” — Zach Reitano

  1. Claims driverless tech is proven dramatically safer than human driving.
  2. Alphabet's Waymo is the most established US robotaxi operator deploying this technology.
  3. A bullish autonomous-driving view maps most directly to GOOGL via Waymo.

All-In Podcast

Freedom vs. Safety: Axon CEO Rick Smith on the Future of Policing

Nov 10, 2026111h

Axon CEO Rick Smith recounts building TASER into a public-safety technology platform, with body cameras and cloud software driving the bulk of the company's growth. The most actionable market view is Axon's near-50% investment in drone maker Skydio alongside exclusive distribution rights, which Smith frames as one of the biggest future parts of policing; he also notes a Ring (Amazon) partnership for video sharing and Skydio's growing role. No outright buy/sell recommendation on a stock is made, so these are discussion-level views.

▶Watch on YouTube

Positions · 1

• ▶ 47:11SkydioLongSmith says Axon bought almost half of Skydio because he believes millions of drones will be deployed in the US and that drones will arrive on scene far faster than people. — Speaker 1–
  Why this trade

  “We we bought almost half the company. We we wanted to buy about as much as we could because we're big believers that there's gonna be millions of drones” — Speaker 1

  1. Smith claims drones will be one of the biggest parts of the future of policing, arriving before officers.
  2. Axon invested almost half the company and secured exclusive rights as the channel into its markets.
  3. Result: a bullish view on Skydio as the leading US drone maker, held privately with Axon as largest investor.

Ideas · 2

• ▶ 28:24AXONLongSmith argues Axon's mission-driven device-plus-cloud platform (taser, body cams, counter-drone, drone/robot response) makes it the operating system for public safety and the durable winner as policing technology scales. — Speaker 1+3.7% since episode
  Why this trade

  “virtually, I think every major police department now wears body cameras and we have... The vast majority are on our system” — Speaker 1

  1. Smith says virtually every major police department wears body cameras and most are on Axon's system, with over a million officers uploading video daily.
  2. That recurring cloud/evidence business plus new drone and robotics offerings extend Axon's platform and revenue per agency.
  3. Result: a long view on Axon as the scaled public-safety technology platform.
• ▶ 32:53AMZNLongRing → Smith notes Ring's cameras remain popular for home protection and crime video sharing despite privacy backlash, and Axon partners with Ring on safeguards for sharing footage with police. — Speaker 1-3.2% since episode
  Why this trade

  “they go buy Ring cameras specifically because Ring has some of the best technology for being able to protect your home” — Speaker 1

  1. Smith says people still buy Ring cameras because of the technology and ability to share video with police after a crime.
  2. Ring is owned by Amazon, which gains from continued consumer camera adoption and the Axon partnership.
  3. Result: a mild positive read-through to Amazon's Ring business.

The Ramsey Show

The Pressure to Have It All Is Keeping You Broke

Nov 10, 2026124h

The episode is a personal-finance call-in show with no direct stock or asset recommendations from the hosts. The only market-relevant stance is general investing guidance: George Campbell advises a 26-year-old caller to avoid bond and target-date funds and instead hold 100% equities via growth stock mutual funds or an S&P 500 index fund for long-term growth. A caller mentions owning Bitcoin, ETFs and an S&P 500 fund but no actionable view is expressed. Hosts also advise selling concentrated company stock for diversification and reject buying gold as a mortgage-payoff strategy.

Positions · 5

• 1:34:05SSPXLongAt 26 you should stay 100% in equities for long-term growth, and a good S&P 500 index fund covers most of what we discussed. — George Campbell-0.6% since episode
  Why this trade

  “A good S and P 500 index fund will cover a lot of what we just talked about, but you can beat the market with a mutual fund.” — George Campbell

  1. George says target-date and bond funds drag returns from ~10-12% down to 6-7%, so young investors should stay fully in equities.
  2. He notes a good S&P 500 index fund covers most of the four growth-stock mutual fund categories we recommend.
  3. Resulting stance: own broad US equity index exposure for the long haul.
• 1:32:59Growth stock mutual funds (large/mid/small/international)LongSplit money 25% each across growth and income, growth, aggressive growth and international funds to diversify on top of diversifying. — George Campbell–
  Why this trade

  “If you just split four types across 25%, you're gonna do just fine because you're diversifying on top of diversifying.” — George Campbell

  1. George lays out the four Ramsey-recommended fund types: growth and income, growth, aggressive growth and international, 25% each.
  2. He argues each fund holds 90-200+ stocks, so you diversify on top of diversifying.
  3. Resulting trade: allocate retirement contributions across these equity fund categories, avoiding bond and target-date funds.
• 1:33:22Bond funds / target date fundsAvoidTarget date funds shift you to bonds and cut returns from 10-12% to 6-7%, so we stay 100% equities instead. — George Campbell–
  Why this trade

  “Instead of seeing that 10%, over time, you're gonna be 60% bonds, 40% in stocks... your returns are gonna turn from 10 or 12% down to six or 7%.” — George Campbell

  1. George says target date funds grow more conservative over time, ending up 60% bonds and 40% stocks.
  2. That drags returns from roughly 10-12% down to 6-7%, which young investors don't want.
  3. Resulting stance: remove bond and target date funds from the 401(k) menu.
• 2:00:27GGOLDAvoidDon't buy gold as collateral to pay off the house: you pay above spot, sell below it, and you'll never want to sell it anyway. — George Campbell-6.0% since episode
  Why this trade

  “I wouldn't recommend buying gold anyways. No matter what it is. You're paying above spot to buy it. You're gonna sell below it.” — George Campbell

  1. A caller proposes buying gold as collateral to eventually pay off her mortgage.
  2. George says you pay above spot to buy and sell below it, and still have to convert gold to money.
  3. Resulting stance: avoid gold; pay down the mortgage directly as forced savings instead.
• 1:54:10Caller's employer company stockAvoidI would offload the company stock regardless, just for diversification, since it's a volatile industry and a big concentrated position. — George Campbell–
  Why this trade

  “I definitely would offload the company stock anyways regardless just because of diversification.” — George Campbell

  1. A caller holds ~$175k of company stock, $95k vested, in a volatile industry.
  2. George says he would sell it regardless purely for diversification.
  3. Resulting proceeds go to taxes, 15% investing and mortgage paydown.

Prof G Markets

Scandal At Nvidia: Is This The End For Jensen Huang?

Nov 10, 2026125h

The episode discusses the scandal around Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's admitted affair with a woman US officials believe is a Chinese spy, which sent Nvidia shares down 4-8%. Guest Robert Armstrong lays out conditions for whether the AI trade has truly topped (solid macro, hyperscaler capex confidence, bond market) and predicts Huang likely cannot survive as CEO. The most actionable read is caution on Nvidia given governance and China export-control overhang, with the AI-data-center complex broadly at risk.

▶Watch on YouTube

Ideas · 2

• ▶ 33:19NVDAAvoidArmstrong thinks the Jensen Huang China-spy scandal is hard to come back from and it's a 'very difficult situation' for Nvidia and his remaining CEO, with strengthened export controls a likely headwind. — Robert Armstrong-12.0% since episode
  Why this trade

  “this is a very difficult situation, for NVIDIA and for him remaining as the CEO.” — Robert Armstrong

  1. Armstrong says Huang's affair crossed the US-China geopolitical line and expects export controls to be strengthened, threatening Nvidia's China business.
  2. He bets Huang 'can't be left as the solo pilot' and governance risk now matters given the flat org with ~60 direct reports.
  3. Resulting stance is caution/avoid on NVDA until facts and succession are clear.
• ▶ 31:18AI data center buildout theme (hyperscalers/chipmakers)AvoidArmstrong flags that any hyperscaler signaling lower data center capex would be 'an awful moment' that could pop the AI bubble, and 46 of 47 local data center ballot measures failed last week. — Robert Armstrong–
  Why this trade

  “if one of the hyperscalers comes out one of these days and says... Maybe we're gonna spend a little less on these data centers... That is gonna be an awful moment” — Robert Armstrong

  1. Speaker claims data centers lost 46 of 47 ballot initiatives, showing public resistance that hit AI stocks.
  2. Armstrong says expressions of lost confidence in hyperscaler capex plans would be very dangerous for the trade.
  3. Resulting view is caution on the AI data center buildout complex broadly rather than a specific ticker.

Prof G Markets

Why Stocks Had Their Best Day Of The Year — Then Their Worst

Nov 9, 2026149h

Scott Galloway and Ed Elson (Speaker 3) discuss the market whipsaw after Democrats swept Congress—a relief rally followed by a tech-led selloff—and argue the durable read-through is a populist backlash against data centers. They frame the selloff as an 'AI break, not a market break,' favoring hyperscalers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon) over levered neoclouds (CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN) that were crushed. Galloway predicts above-average S&P 500 returns over six months (the 20-for-20 Senate-flip pattern) and Elson expects sensible rather than hostile AI regulation.

Positions · 1

• 1:14:08SPYLongGalloway predicts the 20-for-20 pattern holds—when Democrats take the Senate, markets average 12% gains—so he expects above-average S&P returns over six months. — Speaker 0+1.5% since episode
  Why this trade

  “my prediction is we're gonna go '21 for '21, and in the next six months, we're gonna see an above above average returns in the S and P.” — Speaker 0

  1. Galloway cites Deutsche Bank analysis: Senate flips to Democrats 20-for-20 preceded strong market gains averaging 12%.
  2. That maps directly to broad S&P 500 exposure.
  3. His prediction: '21 for 21,' above-average S&P 500 returns over the next six months.

Ideas · 9

• 21:00MSFTLongGalloway says big tech like Microsoft are diversified AI plays that would be fine even if AI is overhyped, offering downside protection versus levered compute names. — Speaker 0-3.1% since episode
  Why this trade

  “AI could end up being vastly overhyped and be like the railroads, and they would still be fine.” — Speaker 0

  1. Galloway: AI could be overhyped like railroads, but Microsoft would 'still be fine' on its core businesses.
  2. Microsoft rallied 6.5% to an all-time high post-election and owns Azure AI exposure plus stakes such as OpenAI.
  3. Rotate from levered neoclouds into diversified AI hyperscalers for exposure with downside protection.
• 21:22GOOGLLongFramed as an AI play with downside protection: even if AI disappoints, people still buy Google search and YouTube ads. — Speaker 0+1.2% since episode
  Why this trade

  “People are still gonna be buying Google search ads and YouTube ads and PowerPoint.” — Speaker 0

  1. Galloway argues big tech 'would still be fine' because search/YouTube ads persist regardless of AI.
  2. Alphabet is one of the diversified hyperscalers cited as the safer way to play AI.
  3. Take exposure via Alphabet rather than levered compute names.
• 19:21AMZNLongListed alongside Microsoft and Google as a diversified hyperscaler and AI play that rose post-election rather than falling with the levered compute names. — Speaker 3+0.6% since episode
  Why this trade

  “You actually had significant increases in Google, Amazon, Microsoft rose six and a half percent on the day off the election” — Speaker 3

  1. Galloway groups Amazon with the big tech names that are safer AI exposure.
  2. Amazon was cited as rising on election day while neoclouds plummeted, showing investor preference for diversified AI buyers of compute.
  3. Prefer these 'buyers of compute' over 'sellers of compute.'
• 18:41CRWVAvoidNamed as an extremely levered data-center/neocloud 'levered trade to AI' that plummeted on anti-data-center election results and is most exposed to a slowdown. — Speaker 3+13.4% since episode
  Why this trade

  “the extremely leveraged data center names, so the Neo Clouds, CoreWeave, Nebius, Iron, absolutely tapped. Just fell through the floor” — Speaker 3

  1. Elson says 'all of the extremely leveraged data center names, so the Neo Clouds, CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN, absolutely tapped' and fell through the floor.
  2. Galloway frames these as levered AI trades, 'times three or times negative three.'
  3. The data-center permits losing 40 of 41 measures hits the least-diversified compute suppliers hardest—avoid.
• 1:13:44NBISAvoidLumped with CoreWeave/IREN as a levered neocloud that got crushed and faces the most direct hit from data-center backlash. — Speaker 3-11.6% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Core Weave, Nebius, Cerebras. Those guys have gotten crushed.” — Speaker 3

  1. Elson lists Nebius among the leveraged data-center names that 'absolutely tapped.'
  2. Galloway calls these 'levered trades to AI'—the least diversified to a compute-supply choke.
  3. Anti-data-center votes and pending Nebius earnings keep this levered name at risk.
• 18:41IRENAvoidCited among the leveraged neocloud/compute names that plummeted post-election as the data-center supply outlook worsened. — Speaker 3-18.2% since episode
  Why this trade

  “the Neo Clouds, CoreWeave, Nebius, Iron, absolutely tapped” — Speaker 3

  1. Elson names 'Iron' (IREN) among the levered data center names that fell through the floor.
  2. Galloway: the least diversified to data-center supply got hit hardest.
  3. Avoid the highest-leverage AI compute plays amid permitting risk.
• 37:33SPCXAvoidPrivate SpaceX is down 11% on the week and investors fear it's 'screwed' with Texas turning blue; Galloway warns Democrats would be stupid to be punitive but pressure could rise. — Speaker 3+2.0% since episode
  Why this trade

  “investors are very worried about that one, down 11% SpaceX on the week. They they think SpaceX is screwed.” — Speaker 3

  1. Elson: 'investors are very worried about that one, down 11% SpaceX on the week.'
  2. Galloway: Texas is now blue and there are 'a lot of reasons why SpaceX might come under pressure.'
  3. Risk of punitive politics around space/Starlink weighs on the private name.
• 1:08:01AAPLLongGalloway praises Apple for deciding not to get into the AI race—'it's about what they don't do'—and notes its stock is up more than any Mag 7 name this year. — Speaker 0+3.2% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Look what Apple decided not to do, not to get into the AI race. Their stock is up more than any any of the Mag seven this year.” — Speaker 0

  1. Galloway: 'Look what Apple decided not to do, not to get into the AI race.'
  2. He states Apple's stock is up more than any of the Mag seven this year as a result.
  3. Capital discipline on CapEx makes Apple an attractive Mag 7 name.
• 17:17USOLongElson pushes back on the market's bet that the Iran war ends soon—oil fell 8% on election—saying 'I don't think so personally,' implying oil could rebound. — Speaker 3-1.2% since episode
  Why this trade

  “And right now, investors are betting yes. Is that the right bet? I don't think so personally” — Speaker 3

  1. Elson: investors betting on a swifter end to the war drove oil down 8%.
  2. He disagrees: 'Is that the right bet? I don't think so personally.'
  3. If the war doesn't end quickly, crude is undervalued—constructive on oil.