Do analyst calls move stock perps?
Three years of TipRanks analyst ratings on companies with stock perpetual futures, measured against daily closes: median returns after upgrades, downgrades, initiations and target changes, by analyst star rating, with the S&P 500 as the benchmark.
Buy calls by top analysts (≥ 4 stars): median +1.6% after 21 trading days vs +0.6% for everyone else (n = 74,492 / 32,132).
Retrospective grouping: ratings are bucketed by the analysts' star ratings as of today. Star history is collected since Sep 11, 2026; 97% of the buy ratings here were grouped by today's stars, not by the stars at the time of the call.
Window Aug 14, 2023 – Oct 8, 2026 · 172,887 ratings, 158,087 with a measured outcome · computed Oct 9, 2026
By action
| Group | n | Median 21 d | Median 63 d | vs S&P 500, 21 d | vs S&P 500, 63 d | Targets hit within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgraded | 3,729 / 3,528 | +1.9% | +3.9% | +0.4% | -0.8% | 65% (n = 1,892) |
| Target raised | 47,192 / 43,772 | +1.3% | +3.1% | -0.4% | -1.5% | 68% (n = 22,562) |
| Initiated | 4,587 / 4,231 | +1.2% | +4.1% | -0.3% | -1.4% | 67% (n = 1,933) |
| Reiterated | 38,201 / 35,006 | +1.3% | +3.9% | -0.6% | -1.2% | 63% (n = 19,143) |
| Maintained | 108,207 / 101,236 | +1.1% | +3.7% | -0.6% | -1.6% | 65% (n = 46,836) |
| Resumed | 35 | -3.3% | -5.3% | -4.4% | -9.2% | – |
| Target lowered | 26,384 / 24,710 | +1.8% | +5.4% | -0.4% | -1.0% | 62% (n = 11,333) |
| Downgraded | 3,328 / 3,127 | +0.8% | +3.0% | -0.7% | -2.1% | 63% (n = 411) |
By analyst star rating
Retrospective grouping: ratings are bucketed by the analysts' star ratings as of today. Star history is collected since Sep 11, 2026; 97% of the buy ratings here were grouped by today's stars, not by the stars at the time of the call.| Group | n | Median 21 d | Median 63 d | vs S&P 500, 21 d | vs S&P 500, 63 d | Targets hit within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5-5 star | 59,980 / 56,015 | +1.7% | +5.7% | 0.0% | +0.5% | 70% (n = 38,021) |
| 4-4.5 star | 14,512 / 13,532 | +1.1% | +3.3% | -0.7% | -2.0% | 63% (n = 9,095) |
| 3-4 star | 12,284 / 11,428 | +0.9% | +2.4% | -1.0% | -2.8% | 59% (n = 7,698) |
| below 3 stars | 19,261 / 17,702 | +0.3% | +0.7% | -1.4% | -4.4% | 53% (n = 11,527) |
| Unspecified action | 587 / 411 | -0.2% | +2.0% | -0.6% | -2.6% | 63% (n = 65) |
By year
| Group | n | Median 21 d | Median 63 d | vs S&P 500, 21 d | vs S&P 500, 63 d | Targets hit within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 9,577 | +2.6% | +12.0% | +0.4% | +1.9% | 69% (n = 9,155) |
| 2024 | 32,410 | +1.6% | +3.7% | -0.6% | -1.1% | 64% (n = 30,244) |
| 2025 | 37,802 | +1.4% | +2.8% | -0.4% | -1.5% | 65% (n = 27,007) |
| 2026 | 26,835 / 19,299 | -0.1% | +2.4% | -1.1% | -3.3% | – |
Method
Every rating on a company with a stock perp (TipRanks via FMP, from June 2023). Reference = the equity's close on the rating day; horizons in trading days from daily closes; "vs S&P 500" = the stock's move minus SPY's over the same days; a target counts as hit when the close reaches it within 252 trading days after the rating. Medians, not averages, so single outliers do not drive the result. Historical observation, not a forecast.
TipRanks data via FMP · Historical observation, not a forecast.