PerpEquitiesDo analyst calls move stock perps?
Three years of TipRanks analyst ratings on companies with stock perpetual futures, measured against daily closes: median returns after upgrades, downgrades, initiations and target changes, by analyst star rating, with the S&P 500 as the benchmark.
Buy calls by top analysts (≥ 4 stars): median +1.7% after 21 trading days vs +0.7% for everyone else (n = 65,600 / 26,052).
Window Aug 14, 2023 – Sep 10, 2026 · 145,789 ratings, 135,223 with a measured outcome · computed Sep 11, 2026
By action
| Group | n | Median 21 d | Median 63 d | vs S&P 500, 21 d | vs S&P 500, 63 d | Targets hit within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgraded | 3,183 | +2.1% | +4.0% | +0.4% | -0.6% | 66% (n = 1,589) |
| Target raised | 40,416 | +1.4% | +3.3% | -0.4% | -1.2% | 67% (n = 19,406) |
| Initiated | 3,674 | +1.5% | +4.6% | 0.0% | -0.9% | 68% (n = 1,578) |
| Reiterated | 32,596 | +1.4% | +4.2% | -0.5% | -0.9% | 64% (n = 16,514) |
| Maintained | 92,917 | +1.3% | +3.8% | -0.5% | -1.5% | 65% (n = 40,046) |
| Resumed | 35 | -3.3% | -5.3% | -4.4% | -9.2% | 69% (n = 13) |
| Target lowered | 22,321 | +1.9% | +5.5% | -0.3% | -1.0% | 62% (n = 9,576) |
| Downgraded | 2,818 | +0.8% | +3.2% | -0.7% | -2.3% | 62% (n = 329) |
By analyst star rating
| Group | n | Median 21 d | Median 63 d | vs S&P 500, 21 d | vs S&P 500, 63 d | Targets hit within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5-5 stars | 51,964 | +1.8% | +6.0% | +0.1% | +0.7% | 70% (n = 32,704) |
| 4-4.5 stars | 13,636 | +1.2% | +3.2% | -0.6% | -2.0% | 63% (n = 8,570) |
| 3-4 stars | 11,537 | +1.0% | +2.6% | -0.9% | -2.7% | 59% (n = 7,034) |
| under 3 stars | 14,085 | +0.4% | +0.7% | -1.4% | -4.5% | 54% (n = 8,467) |
| no star rating | 430 | +0.2% | +2.5% | -0.5% | -2.2% | 60% (n = 42) |
By year
| Group | n | Median 21 d | Median 63 d | vs S&P 500, 21 d | vs S&P 500, 63 d | Targets hit within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 8,513 | +2.7% | +12.4% | +0.5% | +2.4% | 70% (n = 8,136) |
| 2024 | 28,682 | +1.7% | +4.0% | -0.4% | -0.8% | 65% (n = 26,749) |
| 2025 | 33,360 | +1.3% | +2.6% | -0.4% | -1.6% | 65% (n = 21,932) |
| 2026 | 21,097 | +0.1% | +3.2% | -0.9% | -2.6% | – |
Method
Every rating on a company with a stock perp (TipRanks via FMP, from June 2023). Reference = the equity's close on the rating day; horizons in trading days from daily closes; "vs S&P 500" = the stock's move minus SPY's over the same days; a target counts as hit when the close reaches it within 252 trading days after the rating. Medians, not averages, so single outliers do not drive the result. Historical observation, not a forecast.
TipRanks data via FMP · Historical observation, not a forecast.