Do analyst calls move stock perps?
Three years of TipRanks analyst ratings on companies with stock perpetual futures, measured against daily closes: median returns after upgrades, downgrades, initiations and target changes, by analyst star rating, with the S&P 500 as the benchmark.
Buy calls by top analysts (≥ 4 stars): median +1.5% after 21 trading days vs +0.6% for everyone else (n = 81,142 / 32,395).
Retrospective grouping: ratings are bucketed by the analysts' star ratings as of today. Star history is collected since Sep 11, 2026; 94% of the buy ratings here were grouped by today's stars, not by the stars at the time of the call.
Window Aug 14, 2023 – Oct 23, 2026 · 186,131 ratings, 168,552 with a measured outcome · computed Oct 25, 2026
By action
| Group | n | Median 21 d | Median 63 d | vs S&P 500, 21 d | vs S&P 500, 63 d | Targets hit within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgraded | 3,996 / 3,805 | +1.8% | +3.7% | +0.3% | -0.9% | 65% (n = 2,076) |
| Target raised | 49,915 / 46,920 | +1.3% | +3.0% | -0.4% | -1.6% | 68% (n = 24,500) |
| Initiated | 5,055 / 4,559 | +0.8% | +4.1% | -0.6% | -1.4% | 66% (n = 2,100) |
| Reiterated | 40,582 / 37,403 | +1.3% | +3.9% | -0.6% | -1.2% | 63% (n = 20,352) |
| Maintained | 115,326 / 108,169 | +1.2% | +3.6% | -0.6% | -1.6% | 65% (n = 50,453) |
| Resumed | 38 | -3.0% | +0.1% | -4.4% | -6.8% | – |
| Target lowered | 27,938 / 26,463 | +1.8% | +5.3% | -0.4% | -0.9% | 62% (n = 12,063) |
| Downgraded | 3,555 / 3,333 | +0.9% | +3.0% | -0.6% | -2.1% | 63% (n = 446) |
By analyst star rating
Retrospective grouping: ratings are bucketed by the analysts' star ratings as of today. Star history is collected since Sep 11, 2026; 94% of the buy ratings here were grouped by today's stars, not by the stars at the time of the call.| Group | n | Median 21 d | Median 63 d | vs S&P 500, 21 d | vs S&P 500, 63 d | Targets hit within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5-5 star | 64,685 / 60,636 | +1.7% | +5.4% | 0.0% | +0.3% | 70% (n = 41,259) |
| 4-4.5 star | 16,457 / 15,481 | +0.9% | +3.1% | -0.8% | -2.2% | 62% (n = 10,646) |
| 3-4 star | 12,231 / 11,334 | +1.0% | +2.6% | -0.9% | -2.6% | 59% (n = 7,621) |
| below 3 stars | 19,456 / 17,900 | +0.3% | +0.7% | -1.4% | -4.4% | 53% (n = 11,679) |
| Unspecified action | 708 / 480 | +0.1% | +2.3% | -0.6% | -2.4% | 61% (n = 82) |
By year
| Group | n | Median 21 d | Median 63 d | vs S&P 500, 21 d | vs S&P 500, 63 d | Targets hit within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 9,949 | +2.8% | +12.3% | +0.4% | +2.0% | 69% (n = 9,513) |
| 2024 | 33,896 | +1.7% | +3.8% | -0.5% | -1.0% | 64% (n = 31,635) |
| 2025 | 39,574 | +1.4% | +2.8% | -0.4% | -1.5% | 64% (n = 30,139) |
| 2026 | 30,118 / 22,412 | -0.1% | +2.1% | -1.1% | -3.2% | – |
Method
Every rating on a company with a stock perp (TipRanks via FMP, from June 2023). Reference = the equity's close on the rating day; horizons in trading days from daily closes; "vs S&P 500" = the stock's move minus SPY's over the same days; a target counts as hit when the close reaches it within 252 trading days after the rating. Medians, not averages, so single outliers do not drive the result. Historical observation, not a forecast.
TipRanks data via FMP · Historical observation, not a forecast.