Podcast işlem fikirleri

All-In Podcast

Satya Nadella on the AI Doomer Slowdown, Microsoft's Master Plan & Who Wins AI

15 Eyl 20264h

▶YouTube'da izle

Fikirler · 4

• ▶ 16:38MSFTLongNadella argues AI's value shifts to the app and middleware layer, where Microsoft's 30M+ paid Copilot seats and enterprise harness position it to capture margin as model prices collapse. — Satya Nadella-%0,5 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “The apps are gonna become much more viable economically, which is great for the ecosystem.” — Satya Nadella

  1. Token-price competition (open-weight models at a fraction of frontier pricing) compresses the model layer's take rate.
  2. He says that dynamic makes app and middleware layers 'much more viable economically,' and he cites real enterprise Copilot workflows with 30M+ seats.
  3. MSFT owns the M365 knowledge-work base (450M users) and the harness/middleware layer, so it is the listed beneficiary of this shift.
• ▶ 0:14MSFTLongNadella frames Microsoft's OpenAI investment and IP access as a core asset while Azure builds a $80B+ multi-customer AI cloud for the long tail, not just two model labs. — Satya Nadella-%0,5 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I'm going to spend $80,000,000,000 building out Azure.” — Satya Nadella

  1. He says he is 'good for' $80B building out Azure and that the company is renting capacity because it is short on supply.
  2. He stresses Azure must serve many third parties and its own first-party estate, with OpenAI as one of its largest customers.
  3. That demand-driven hyperscale model implies durable Azure revenue tied to the AI buildout.
• ▶ 25:19OPENAILongNadella repeatedly calls the OpenAI investment a source of pride and says Microsoft will keep using its IP, while noting frontier model companies can manage token pricing and 'will do fine.' — Satya Nadella-%1,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “We're thrilled about, obviously, our investment in OpenAI, the access we have to their IP, which we have for a long time.” — Satya Nadella

  1. He says Microsoft is 'thrilled about, obviously, our investment in OpenAI' and its long-term IP access.
  2. He argues model companies retain pricing power via model families even as open-source checks emerge.
  3. The implication is a constructive stance on the private company itself, separate from Microsoft's equity stake.
• ▶ 30:37NVDALongNadella says Nvidia remains Microsoft's primary AI compute platform while adding heterogeneous silicon, implying continued core demand for Nvidia's accelerators even as the mix diversifies. — Satya Nadella+%0,4 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “We have Jensen stuff, which is I think our primary thing.” — Satya Nadella

  1. He describes Microsoft's kit as short-term, demand-driven assets (racks, chips) representing ~60% of cost.
  2. He says 'We have Jensen stuff, which is our primary thing' alongside AMD and custom chips.
  3. Microsoft's continued hyperscale inference/training build therefore supports Nvidia demand even amid diversification.

Prof G Markets

Why OpenAI And Anthropic Are Pumping The Breaks

15 Eyl 202613h

Prof G Markets discusses the AI 'pace the frontier' debate, with Base10's Charlie O'Neil arguing that OpenAI and Anthropic's safety push won't slow compute demand—it may even increase it—so he rejects the bearish AI-slowdown read that hit NVIDIA (-3%), Oracle (-4%), CoreWeave (-7%) and SoftBank (-15%). Host Ed Elson is skeptical of Anthropic's claim of two quarters of adjusted operating profitability, saying he'll 'believe it when I see it,' while noting OpenAI told Fortune it won't IPO in 2026.

Pozisyonlar · 1

• 27:31ANTHROPICKaçınEd Elson says he won't trust Anthropic's pre-IPO profitability claims because the adjustments exclude revenue-sharing and training costs—'I will believe it when I see it.' — Ed Elson+%0,2 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “when it comes to the profitability of AI, I stand by what I said last week, and that is that I will believe it when I see it.” — Ed Elson

  1. Anthropic told investors it has been profitable for two straight quarters ahead of its IPO.
  2. Elson notes profitability is only 'adjusted operating,' with >80% gross margins calculated before revenue sharing and model training costs.
  3. Without S-1 clarity, he treats the headline as uninvestable hype.

Fikirler · 5

• 5:07NVDALongO'Neil says the labs' safety push requires MORE compute, not less, so the AI-slowdown selloff that took NVIDIA down 3% is misguided. — Charlie O'Neil+%0,5 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “it's certainly not gonna be a, you know, a a bearish sign for, like, the amount of compute the world is gonna need over the next few years.” — Charlie O'Neil

  1. O'Neil argues OpenAI/Anthropic will allocate up to 20%+ of compute to safety while still scaling model roadmaps.
  2. More compute allocation means labs 'might even see the labs be even more aggressive with compute build outs' for GPUs.
  3. Monday's AI-adjacent selloff (NVIDIA -3%) is therefore a buying opportunity rather than a warning.
• 15:51ORCLLongOracle fell 4% on AI-spending-slowdown fears, but O'Neil argues compute demand keeps rising, making the dip a mispriced reaction. — Charlie O'Neil-%2,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Running a model on compute has never been more valuable, and I don't think there's any world in which any lab... are going to want to stop spending on compute.” — Charlie O'Neil

  1. The episode lists Oracle down 4% among AI-adjacent names sold off on slowdown concerns.
  2. O'Neil says compute only becomes more valuable ($10M/MW to $20-25M/MW next year), so spending won't stop.
  3. Falling on a thesis the guest rejects implies the selloff overshot fundamentals.
• 5:07CRWVLongCoreWeave dropped 7% on AI-capex worries, but O'Neil's 'more compute, more buildouts' argument suggests demand for GPU cloud capacity remains intact. — Charlie O'Neil-%1,7 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “we might even see the the labs be even more aggressive with compute build outs and and securing compute.” — Charlie O'Neil

  1. CoreWeave sold off 7% Monday on fears an AI slowdown would hit spending.
  2. O'Neil claims labs will secure and build even more compute for safety and training.
  3. That supports demand for third-party GPU capacity providers like CoreWeave.
• 2:52SOFTBANKLongOpenAI → SoftBank fell 15% as a major OpenAI investor on slowdown fears, but O'Neil says OpenAI's compute spend is only going up, and Altman said no 2026 IPO rather than a wind-down. — Ed Elson+%1,7 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “SoftBank, which is a significant investor in OpenAI closed down 15%.” — Ed Elson

  1. SoftBank closed down 15% because it is a significant OpenAI investor and markets feared an AI pullback.
  2. O'Neil argues the labs won't cut compute spending because each megawatt is getting more valuable.
  3. If OpenAI spend continues, the read-through to its largest backer is positive.
• 25:21OPENAIKaçınElson highlights OpenAI's $20B+ operating loss and Altman's own statement that an IPO in 2026 is 'ill advised,' keeping the core AI business model under a cloud. — Ed Elson-%0,6 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “we learned that OpenAI racked up more than $20,000,000,000 in operating losses last year.” — Ed Elson

  1. Leaked documents show OpenAI racked up over $20 billion in operating losses last year.
  2. Altman told Fortune OpenAI won't go public in 2026, calling it an 'ill advised moment.'
  3. Together these undermine the AI business-model bull case Elson has questioned repeatedly.

BiggerPockets Money

Aswath Damodaran: Why AI Needs $10 Trillion in Revenue to Work

15 Eyl 202613h

Pozisyonlar · 7

• 17:15NVDAKaçınSold his entire NVIDIA stake, saying it's an awesome company but 'priced as the greatest company ever,' which makes it a bad investment. — Aswath Damodaran+%0,3 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I think NVIDIA is an awesome company, but it's being priced as the greatest company ever. And to me, that's not a good investment.” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. Damodaran says NVDA is being priced as the greatest company ever and he sold all of it from late 2023 through recently.
  2. He still calls it an awesome company but the valuation leaves no margin of safety, so he exited despite the huge gain.
  3. Resulting stance: avoid/trim NVIDIA at current prices rather than hold.
• 16:30TSLAKaçınSold all Tesla right after the election because the company became a political as well as business play, which he doesn't want to own. — Aswath Damodaran-%0,5 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I sold Tesla right after the election because I don't like to own companies that become political as well as business plays.” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. Damodaran says politics is now part of the Tesla story for better or worse.
  2. He states he doesn't feel comfortable owning companies that become political as well as business plays.
  3. He sold his entire position and no longer holds Tesla.
• 40:42SSPXLongFor most investors, especially his children, Damodaran increasingly favors index funds (with S&P 500 as the largest holding) over single-stock AI bets given winner/loser uncertainty. — Aswath Damodaran%0,0 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I have the S and P 500, and it's going to be usually the largest of the holdings” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. He says he's moving his children's money into index funds because individual stocks require day-to-day oversight they won't do.
  2. He keeps the S&P 500 as usually the largest holding but blends small-cap, emerging-market and other indexes.
  3. He argues uncertainty about AI winners strengthens rather than weakens the case for passive investing.
• 20:51BYDLongDamodaran likes BYD as a company and has standing limit-buy orders well below market, to be triggered if it drops 30-50% amid bad news. — Aswath Damodaran-%0,7 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “The three of the stocks that that I used to that I track are BYD, Palantir, and MercadoLibre, three companies that I like for very different reasons.” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. He says BYD is one of three companies he tracks and likes for very different reasons.
  2. He valued it and placed non-expiring limit buys far below the current price because it looked overpriced.
  3. The plan is to buy mechanically when a big drawdown creates an emotional-buying scenario.
• 21:03PLTRLongHe likes Palantir as a company but considers it overpriced, with standing limit-buy orders far below today's price. — Aswath Damodaran+%0,9 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “The three of the stocks that that I used to that I track are BYD, Palantir, and MercadoLibre, three companies that I like for very different reasons. But when I first looked at them, they were all overpriced.” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. Damodaran names Palantir as one of three companies he tracks and likes.
  2. He valued it, found it overpriced, and put in limit buys well below current levels with no expiration.
  3. This is a conditional buy-on-drawdown stance, not a buy-at-market call.
• 21:03MELILongHe likes MercadoLibre as a business but views it as overpriced, holding limit-buy orders below market for a drawdown entry. — Aswath Damodaran-%3,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “The three of the stocks that that I used to that I track are BYD, Palantir, and MercadoLibre, three companies that I like for very different reasons. But when I first looked at them, they were all overpriced.” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. Damodaran names MercadoLibre as one of three companies he tracks and likes.
  2. He valued it and judged it overpriced, so he set non-expiring limit buys below today's price.
  3. This is a watchlist/conditional-buy view triggered only on a large price decline.
• 24:58Treasury billsLongFor those near retirement or needing to de-risk, Damodaran suggests parking money in 6-month Treasury bills yielding close to 4-5.5% rather than staying in AI-heavy stocks. — Aswath Damodaran–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “you can invest in treasury bills directly. Put in a six month bill, you're gonna get close to 4%.” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. Damodaran says if you're two years from retirement, 'get your money out of stocks then' and put it into bonds yielding ~5.5%.
  2. For tax-protected accounts, he suggests a 6-month treasury bill yielding close to 4% while doing homework.
  3. He cautions cash gets 'sticky' so investors should keep looking for opportunities while parked in T-bills.

Fikirler · 8

• 17:34GOOGLKaçınAs one of the remaining Magnificent Seven he holds, Alphabet is viewed as fairly or overvalued and at risk of AI capital write-offs hitting shareholders. — Aswath Damodaran-%0,4 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “If I look at the remaining five, my guess is all five are either fairly valued or overvalued by a little bit.” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. Damodaran says the five max-seven companies he still owns are all either fairly valued or overvalued by a little bit.
  2. He notes Alphabet/Meta shareholders bear the losses if the AI factory is written down, funded from advertising cash that could have gone to dividends/buybacks.
  3. He won't sell yet due to 25-30% tax-driven sell thresholds, but would shed them if they get overvalued enough.
• 9:55METAKaçınMeta is among the fairly-to-overvalued Magnificent Seven he still holds, with AI write-down risk falling on shareholders rather than debt holders. — Aswath Damodaran+%1,4 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “In the case of Meta and Alphabet, it'll be their shareholders who will lose because the money from the advertising business that could have been used for dividends and buybacks was instead funded in the business.” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. Damodaran says his remaining five max-seven holdings are fairly or slightly overvalued.
  2. He argues Meta's advertising cash flows funding AI capex mean shareholders absorb losses from AI write-offs.
  3. He continues to hold but would sell if overvaluation reaches his 25-30% tax-adjusted threshold.
• 10:20CRWVKaçınIf the AI factory must be written down, CoreWeave's heavy debt makes it the messiest, most systemically risky player in the complex. — Aswath Damodaran-%1,9 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “With CoreWeave, it gets messier. The reason it gets messier is if the factory has to be written down, CoreWeave has enough debt that you worry about not being able to make debt payments.” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. Damodaran says with CoreWeave it gets messier because the company has enough debt to worry about missed debt payments.
  2. Unlike Alphabet/Meta, a write-down there spreads pain beyond shareholders to the broader system.
  3. He singles it out as far more exposed than companies with profitable side businesses.
• 7:07ANTHROPICLongAnthropic is called out as one of the companies making the most money from actual AI products and services via subscriptions and usage, though its run rate is only ~$70B. — Aswath Damodaran+%0,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “the company that probably makes the most money from AI product and services right now is perhaps Anthropic with OpenAI” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. Damodaran says the company making the most money from AI products/services is perhaps Anthropic with OpenAI, through subscriptions and usage.
  2. He notes Anthropic's annualized run rate is only about $70B within the ~$250B collective AI product revenue.
  3. This is a commentary/observation, not a buy recommendation, but frames it as a product-revenue leader.
• 7:07OPENAILongOpenAI is described as one of the leaders in actually monetizing AI products/services via subscriptions, though private and uninvestable today. — Aswath Damodaran-%0,9 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “the company that probably makes the most money from AI product and services right now is perhaps Anthropic with OpenAI” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. Damodaran lists OpenAI alongside Anthropic as arguably the biggest actual AI product/service revenue earners.
  2. He characterizes their money as coming from selling subscriptions and usage of AI products.
  3. Still a private company, so this is descriptive rather than an actionable buy.
• 14:23RSPLongDamodaran says moving from a cap-weighted to an equal-weight index is a reasonable 'sleep test' course correction for investors overexposed to the mega-cap AI complex. — Aswath Damodaran–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “as an equally weighted versus evaluated, can live with as a choice you make because you feel too exposed.” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. He says he can live with equal-weight vs cap-weight as a choice for those feeling too exposed to the AI-heavy S&P 500.
  2. He frames it as a mild course shift that helps investors pass the 'sleep test' rather than a full exit from stocks.
  3. Resulting trade: tilt toward equal-weight exposure versus concentrated cap-weighted S&P exposure.
• 46:26AAPLLongApple may be an individual name still investable because it didn't join the AI capex boom, needing only ~5% annual revenue growth to justify its market cap. — Aswath Damodaran+%0,3 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I'll take one company that makes Apple. The breakeven revenues you need to justify the market cap today are not that much higher. It's like 5% a year growth.” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. Damodaran says Apple's breakeven revenue need to justify today's market cap is only about 5% growth a year.
  2. That's because Apple did not participate in the huge AI CapEx boom, so it's insulated from the 'factory' write-down risk.
  3. He frames it as an example of picking individual names even while the AI space collectively looks overpriced.
• 17:34MSFTLongMicrosoft is one of the remaining Magnificent Seven he still holds, but he views it as fairly-to-overvalued with zero near-term free cash flow due to OpenAI-related CapEx. — Aswath Damodaran-%0,3 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “If I look at the remaining five, my guess is all five are either fairly valued or overvalued by a little bit.” — Aswath Damodaran

  1. Damodaran says the five max-seven stocks he still owns are fairly or slightly overvalued, which includes Microsoft.
  2. He notes Microsoft's bookings from OpenAI will be collected unless OpenAI can't pay, tying its AI revenue to a circular ecosystem.
  3. He continues to hold but would trim if overvaluation reaches his sell threshold.

All-In Podcast

Elon Musk & Gwynne Shotwell on AI Risks and Peer Review, Starship, Terafab, SpaceX/Tesla Merger

15 Eyl 202618h

▶YouTube'da izle

Fikirler · 2

• ▶ 59:22ANTHROPICLongMusk says Anthropic puts more care into safety than OpenAI and that peer-review testing will make unsafe releases legally and reputationally costly, favoring the safer lab. — Speaker 0 (Elon Musk)-%0,6 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “on balance, I think Anthropic is... puts more care into their safety than than OpenAI” — Speaker 0 (Elon Musk)

  1. Musk states Anthropic is better on safety than OpenAI and that both sets of models are 'quite close in capability.'
  2. If peer review exposes dangerous releases, liability and 'egg on face' risk shifts to the labs that ignore warnings.
  3. Anthropic, perceived as the more careful lab, benefits reputationally and potentially in enterprise adoption.
• ▶ 1:00:00GOOGLLongMusk lists Google among the AI companies whose test harnesses would add unique heterogeneous coverage in peer review, implying its model stack is competitive and integral to the emerging AI safety ecosystem. — Speaker 0 (Elon Musk)-%1,0 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “SpaceX is running its test harness and Google and Meta were doing that” — Speaker 0 (Elon Musk)

  1. Musk argues multiple heterogeneous test harnesses (SpaceX, Google, Meta, Chinese firms) would be needed for effective peer review.
  2. That framing implicitly includes Google as a leading frontier player expected to participate in the standard.
  3. If peer review becomes the de facto standard, leading labs like Google are positioned to shape and benefit from it.

All-In Podcast

Jensen Huang: The Doomer Hoax, Superintelligence Is Here, and The Future of AI (ft. President Trump)

14 Eyl 202624h

In a live episode, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang rebutted AI-doom predictions, argued open-source and closed AI models are both needed, and said America should race to exploit AI rather than pause. President Trump called in to call the AI-extinction narrative a "hoax" and framed data centers as "the oil of the next 20-25 years." The hosts repeatedly described NVIDIA as the most important stock in the market and highlighted its full-stack AI-factory position, open-source/autonomy stack, and ecosystem financing role.

▶YouTube'da izle

Pozisyonlar · 1

• ▶ 0:20NVDALongHost calls NVIDIA the most important stock in the market and the only full-stack AI factory, with revenue exploding 97% year over year and demand accelerating. — Speaker 1%0,0 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “NVIDIA is the most important stock in this market... Revenue exploded 97% year over year.” — Speaker 1

  1. Host states NVIDIA is "the only computing platform that is a full stack AI factory" with revenue up 97% YoY.
  2. Jensen says NVIDIA runs every major model, funds ecosystem land/power/shell, and expands its open-source stack (Nemotron, Hugging Face, autonomous driving).
  3. Conclusion: own NVDA as the core AI-infrastructure winner.

Fikirler · 11

• ▶ 34:52TSMLongJensen names TSMC among the critical upstream suppliers that must scale for NVIDIA and the AI buildout to succeed. — Speaker 0-%1,4 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Corning has to support me, Lumentum, and, you know, TSMC, of course, and memory companies.” — Speaker 0

  1. Jensen says NVIDIA thinks about long-term supply chain more than most and needs many companies to support it.
  2. He explicitly lists "TSMC, of course, and memory companies" as needed suppliers.
  3. Resulting trade: long TSMC as a key AI-foundry beneficiary.
• ▶ 34:52GLWLongJensen names Corning as a supplier that has to support NVIDIA's scaling, making it a direct AI-infrastructure supply-chain beneficiary. — Speaker 0-%1,0 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Corning has to support me, Lumentum, and, you know, TSMC, of course, and memory companies.” — Speaker 0

  1. Jensen discusses the long-term supply chain needed for NVIDIA and the AI buildout.
  2. He specifically says "Corning has to support me."
  3. Resulting trade: long Corning as an AI supply-chain play.
• ▶ 34:52LITELongJensen names Lumentum among the suppliers NVIDIA depends on to scale the AI buildout. — Speaker 0-%0,3 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Corning has to support me, Lumentum, and, you know, TSMC, of course, and memory companies.” — Speaker 0

  1. Jensen emphasizes NVIDIA's long-term supply-chain needs.
  2. He explicitly lists Lumentum as a company that supports NVIDIA.
  3. Resulting trade: long Lumentum as an AI-infrastructure supplier.
• ▶ 38:27CRWVLongJensen says NVIDIA supports and sells to Neo Clouds like CoreWeave, whose agility in securing land, power and shell lets them grow faster than hyperscalers. — Speaker 0-%2,9 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “The reason I noticed the early customers of all the neo clouds... were the hyperscalers... with all these regional clouds who are agile and they can move fast” — Speaker 0

  1. Jensen says regional/Neo Clouds are agile, know their local markets, and secure land, power, and shell faster than hyperscalers in Seattle or Palo Alto.
  2. He says NVIDIA helps these Neo Clouds grow and hyperscalers are early customers of them.
  3. Resulting trade: long CoreWeave as a Neo Cloud beneficiary.
• ▶ 38:08NBISLongHost praises Nebius as a superb Neo Cloud that NVIDIA supports, and says the industry needs many more like it. — Speaker 3-%2,9 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I think you introduced me to Nubia. Superb. Great. Everything. They're amazing. But we need, like, 50 of these guys.” — Speaker 3

  1. Speaker 3 says NVIDIA has done a great job supporting the Neo Clouds and calls Nebius "Superb."
  2. He adds the industry needs 50, 100, 1,000 more of these players.
  3. Resulting trade: long Nebius as a fast-growing Neo Cloud.
• ▶ 36:25METALongJensen names Meta's Muse model as one of the frontier models now running on NVIDIA's platform, highlighting Meta as a leading AI model builder. — Speaker 0+%0,6 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “The MetaMuse is available. You got Grok is available. Grokbot's incredible. We now run Gemini” — Speaker 0

  1. Jensen cites the growing list of frontier models available, including Meta's Muse.
  2. Those models run on NVIDIA, implying Meta is a major AI compute consumer.
  3. Resulting trade: long Meta as a frontier-AI participant.
• ▶ 42:07LLYLongJensen says NVIDIA builds biology/protein models because Lilly, Merck and others need them, positioning pharma as AI beneficiaries. — Speaker 0-%0,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “we'll build that because Lilly needs it and Merck needs it and others need it” — Speaker 0

  1. Jensen says NVIDIA built models like ESM-2, AlphaFold2, and Proteina Complexa.
  2. He says "Lilly needs it and Merck needs it" because they lack the capability themselves.
  3. Resulting trade: long Lilly as an AI-drug-discovery beneficiary.
• ▶ 42:07MRKLongJensen cites Merck as a company that needs NVIDIA's protein/biology AI models, making it a likely beneficiary of AI-driven drug discovery. — Speaker 0-%0,6 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “we'll build that because Lilly needs it and Merck needs it and others need it” — Speaker 0

  1. Jensen says NVIDIA builds biology models such as ESM-2 and Protein Complexa.
  2. He explicitly names Merck among the pharma companies that need them.
  3. Resulting trade: long Merck as an AI-biotech beneficiary.
• ▶ 36:25GOOGLLongJensen names Gemini as a frontier model now running on NVIDIA, showing Alphabet as a top-tier AI model competitor on NVIDIA's platform. — Speaker 0-%1,0 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “We now run Gemini, and Anthropic is is scaling up on our platform as well.” — Speaker 0

  1. Jensen lists the frontier models available on NVIDIA's platform.
  2. He names "Gemini" among the growing roster.
  3. Resulting trade: long Alphabet as a frontier-AI player.
• ▶ 35:27AMZNLongSpeaker 3 points to better versions of Bedrock as an obvious opportunity, signaling Amazon's AWS AI-serving layer as a beneficiary. — Speaker 3-%2,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “It seems pretty obvious that there are better versions of ways to build things like Bedrock.” — Speaker 3

  1. Speaker 3 says NVIDIA entering serving via Hugging Face makes products like Open Router/Bedrock natural targets.
  2. Amazon Web Services operates Bedrock as its enterprise model-serving platform.
  3. Resulting trade: long Amazon as an AI cloud/serverless beneficiary.
• ▶ 24:43BELongPresident Trump calls data centers "the oil of the next 20-25 years," implying surging demand for on-site power that benefits fuel-cell maker Bloom. — Speaker 5+%0,5 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “The data centers are great, and they make people wealthy... it's the oil of the next twenty, twenty five years.” — Speaker 5

  1. Trump says data centers make people and states wealthy and are "the oil of the next twenty, twenty five years."
  2. Jensen repeatedly stresses the need for energy/power generation to support AI data centers.
  3. Resulting trade: long Bloom Energy as a data-center power supplier.

The Money Guy Show

Was His $120,000 College Degree a Huge Mistake?

14 Eyl 202634h

This episode of The Money Guy Show features a net-worth and debt-payoff coaching session with a 28-year-old graphic designer, not market or security analysis. The only asset-related discussion is the guest's small holding of Bitcoin via a Coinbase account, which co-host Brian Preston frames as speculative rather than an investment and criticizes Coinbase's lack of true self-custody. No explicit long, short, or avoid recommendations on listed stocks or ETFs are made, so no actionable picks are extracted.

Fikirler · 2

• 16:13COINKaçınBrian argues holding crypto through a Coinbase account gives an illusion of independence because governments can still seize wallets, so it isn't the system-changing investment it's advertised as. — Speaker 2-%3,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Are you really changing the world with a Coinbase account?” — Speaker 2

  1. Guest says his crypto is held 'just an account' at Coinbase as a hedge.
  2. Brian argues Coinbase custody means governments can navigate around the system, undercutting the thesis.
  3. Implied caution on crypto-exposure platforms rather than a formal trade recommendation.
• 18:10BitcoinKaçınBrian calls Bitcoin 'more of a speculative play' not a currency, citing extreme price swings from $128,000 back to the sixties and unsuitability as a medium of exchange. — Speaker 2–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “it's more of a speculative play... As long as it's a hobby, I'm okay. But... I think it's the wrong time to be jumping on the speculation train.” — Speaker 2

  1. Brian notes Bitcoin's volatility swung from ~$128,000 highs back to the sixties.
  2. He argues a unit that jumps from $10 to $64 can't function as money for purchases.
  3. Concludes it's speculation, inappropriate while still carrying high-interest student debt.

Prof G Markets

The Rate Hikes Are Coming

14 Eyl 202637h

Pozisyonlar · 5

• 1:01:16AAPLLongGalloway is cautiously optimistic the foldable iPhone Duo, priced near $2,000, is a hit because Apple is the 'world's best, most profitable second mouse in history'. — Scott Galloway-%0,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I am cautiously optimistic about this one... Apple is gonna come in and sell more foldable phones in the first sixty days that have been sold in the last seven years” — Scott Galloway

  1. Galloway argues Apple waits, learns and makes a more elegant product than first movers like Samsung, and that iOS's luxury-brand signaling drives pricing power.
  2. He says the foldable can replace both iPhone and laptop, and he personally tried to buy one on launch day.
  3. Resulting trade: bullish Apple hardware cycle, though he hedges with 'cautiously optimistic'.
• 1:02:58AAPLKaçınEd remains bearish on Apple stock, seeing the foldable as unimpressive and Apple's 36x multiple unjustified given weak AI/product innovation. — Ed Elson-%0,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I have been publicly kinda bearish on Apple for a while... I would be more bullish actually on building a data center than selling a foldable iPhone” — Ed Elson

  1. Ed says the device is 'too large and too cumbersome' and not compelling versus existing foldables, and that he wants to see more from Apple.
  2. He notes Apple trades at 36x earnings vs ~26x for the S&P while spending far less on CapEx than Alphabet.
  3. Resulting trade: avoid/stay bearish Apple despite being wrong on it so far this year.
• 21:07Long-dated US TreasurysKaçınEd says bond investing is 'dying', warning persistent 3-5% inflation eats yields and long Treasuries just posted their worst decade in 100+ years. — Ed Elson–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “bond investing is in a lot of ways dying... it does call into question the sixty forty portfolio of 40% bonds because at least in the past decade, that portfolio structure has not been rewarded at all” — Ed Elson

  1. Ed argues structural inflation will require far higher yields for bonds to be worth it, eroding real returns.
  2. He says the 60/40 portfolio hasn't been rewarded on a risk-adjusted basis for a decade.
  3. Resulting trade: underweight/avoid long-dated Treasuries; favor equities.
• 21:07US EquitiesLongEd argues that in a forever-inflation regime investors must 'invest more aggressively in stocks than ever before' since equities are the only asset class being rewarded. — Ed Elson–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “you have to invest more aggressively in stocks than ever before because your purchasing power is going down, and the only asset class that is actually being rewarded is equities” — Ed Elson

  1. Ed says purchasing power is declining and structural inflation now looks persistent.
  2. He argues bonds won't compensate, so equities are the only rewarded asset class.
  3. Resulting trade: overweight stocks despite bubble concerns.
• 22:43Investment-grade Corporate BondsLongGalloway says healthy corporate credit yielding 6-8% is now rewarding risk-takers, and a mixed stock/bond portfolio still makes sense. — Scott Galloway–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “if you can buy a corporate bond that looks very healthy, you know, and get a six, seven, 8% return, you know, that's not bad... it's to not get poor. The way you don't get rich, you you not get rich, but you don't get poor is with bonds” — Scott Galloway

  1. Galloway argues for the first time debt investors are being paid for the risk they take (6-8% yields).
  2. His strategy is 'not to get rich, it's to not get poor', favoring less-volatile credit with real teeth.
  3. Resulting trade: buy high-quality corporate bonds/credit over Treasuries.

Fikirler · 10

• 55:06ANTHROPICKaçınEd doubts Anthropic's claimed adjusted operating profitability and warns the upcoming S-1's $30T TAM headline is likely massaged numbers. — Ed Elson+%0,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I believe that neither company is even close to profitable. That's my personal belief... I think this profitability question is enormous.” — Ed Elson

  1. Ed says the arguments for AI economics making sense are unconvincing and Anthropic's profitability claim likely reflects 'BS accounting'.
  2. He expects the S-1 total addressable market of $30 trillion to involve 'a lot of massaging of numbers'.
  3. Resulting trade: skepticism/avoid ahead of the Anthropic IPO.
• 51:17OPENAIKaçınGalloway is torn but leans bearish, comparing AI capex needs ($2.5T) versus ~$150-200B of revenue to railroads/Internet and expecting 'an enormous correction'. — Scott Galloway+%1,9 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “we're gonna have a an enormous correction down... this looks more like the railroads and the Internet, and that is the technology will survive these valuations, but these valuations are are gonna have real volatility” — Scott Galloway

  1. Galloway says AI must reach $2.5T revenue to justify capex versus current ~$150-200B.
  2. He sees parallels to railroads, the electric grid and the Internet, where technology survives but valuations correct.
  3. Resulting trade: cautious/avoid at current AI valuation levels while acknowledging huge ARR growth.
• 41:36ANTHROPICShortEd argues an Anthropic insider's viral 'AI could kill all humans' claim, endorsed by a current researcher, is material public information that could invite securities fraud scrutiny ahead of the IPO. — Ed Elson+%0,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “maybe even dry up the stock price. Well, then we we need to start talking about different issues like securities fraud... we need to talk about issues about public deception” — Ed Elson

  1. Ed argues the alignment lead's statement is a corporate communication, meaning the company must explain or face investigation.
  2. If hyperbolic to stoke IPO hype, it raises public deception/securities fraud issues.
  3. Resulting trade: bearish/avoid setup into the Anthropic IPO until claims are substantiated.
• 23:24SHELLongGalloway cites Shell as a wealth-transfer winner from $100+ oil, up 27%, benefiting Permian/energy landowners and exporters while consumers lose. — Scott Galloway–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Some of the winners with 100 plus dollar oil, Shell's up 27%. ExxonMobil, 34%. Chevron, 37. Norway's, Equinor is up 84.” — Scott Galloway

  1. Galloway says high oil prices transfer wealth from consumers at the pump to energy producers.
  2. He lists Shell among major oil gainers (up 27%) in this environment.
  3. Resulting trade: bullish read-through to big oil equities as a macro inflation beneficiary.
• 23:24XOMLongGalloway lists ExxonMobil (up 34%) as a direct beneficiary of $100+ oil and the wealth transfer from diesel-dependent consumers to producers. — Scott Galloway+%0,5 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “ExxonMobil, 34%. Chevron, 37. Norway's, Equinor is up 84. They supply 30% of all the natural gas consumed in The EU.” — Scott Galloway

  1. Galloway says the US being a net energy exporter means higher energy prices enrich producers like Exxon.
  2. He names ExxonMobil up 34% among oil winners.
  3. Resulting trade: bullish oil-major equity exposure on sustained $100 oil.
• 23:24CVXLongGalloway cites Chevron (up 37%) as another high-oil winner from the consumer-to-producer wealth transfer. — Scott Galloway+%0,7 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “ExxonMobil, 34%. Chevron, 37. Norway's, Equinor is up 84.” — Scott Galloway

  1. Galloway says energy producers are among the few winners from $100+ oil while consumers lose purchasing power.
  2. He names Chevron up 37% in the winners list.
  3. Resulting trade: bullish big-oil energy equities.
• 23:24EQNRLongGalloway notes Equinor is up 84%, benefiting as the supplier of 30% of the EU's natural gas amid the oil conflict. — Scott Galloway–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Norway's, Equinor is up 84. They supply 30% of all the natural gas consumed in The EU.” — Scott Galloway

  1. Galloway cites Equinor as a major winner up 84% on higher energy prices.
  2. He notes it supplies 30% of EU-consumed natural gas, tying its fortunes to the European energy squeeze.
  3. Resulting trade: bullish Equinor as a European gas beneficiary.
• 23:39UNPLongGalloway lists Union Pacific (up 23%) as a railway winner because rails are far more energy-efficient than trucking when diesel hits records. — Scott Galloway–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “railroads, which are much more efficient from an energy standpoint, Canadian Pacific, Kansas City, plus 21%. Union Pacific, 23%. CSX, up 34%. So a transfer of wealth” — Scott Galloway

  1. Galloway says $100 oil and record diesel make energy-efficient rail more attractive versus trucking.
  2. He cites Union Pacific up 23% among rail winners.
  3. Resulting trade: bullish rails on fuel-cost-driven modal shift.
• 23:39CSXLongGalloway cites CSX (up 34%) among energy-efficient rail winners as diesel hits record highs. — Scott Galloway–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Union Pacific, 23%. CSX, up 34%.” — Scott Galloway

  1. Galloway says railroads benefit from being far more energy-efficient than trucks amid $100 oil.
  2. He lists CSX up 34% in the rail winners group.
  3. Resulting trade: bullish CSX as a macro rail beneficiary.
• 23:39CPLongGalloway lists Canadian Pacific Kansas City (up 21%) as a rail winner due to energy efficiency advantage over diesel trucking. — Scott Galloway–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Canadian Pacific, Kansas City, plus 21%.” — Scott Galloway

  1. Galloway notes rails outperform when fuel costs spike, citing CPKC up 21%.
  2. This follows from the wealth transfer to energy-efficient transport from record diesel prices.
  3. Resulting trade: bullish CPKC in a high-oil regime.

Odd Lots

OpenAI President Greg Brockman on Doing Business in the Wake of Hugging Face

14 Eyl 202637h

Pozisyonlar · 2

• 3:01OPENAILongHost Joe Wiesenthal says he switched from Claude Code to OpenAI's Codex because it is clearer and easier to work with for a non-technical user. — Joe Wiesenthal+%1,3 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I recently switched from Claude Code to Codex... I find OpenAI to be... the pros to be clear and therefore to work with as a completely nontechnical person such as myself.” — Joe Wiesenthal

  1. Wiesenthal states he recently switched from Claude Code to Codex and finds OpenAI's tool the pros, clear and workable.
  2. That is a personal product-adoption endorsement of OpenAI's developer offering over a rival's.
  3. Positive developer traction supports OpenAI's platform strategy; no public equity is directly available.
• 3:34ANTHROPICKaçınWiesenthal says he found Claude Code a little hard to work with and abandoned it for Codex, an implicit negative on Anthropic's developer tool. — Joe Wiesenthal-%0,9 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I found that Claude speak... that I found it, like, a little bit hard to work with.” — Joe Wiesenthal

  1. Wiesenthal says he found Claude Code hard to work with and switched away.
  2. That is a consumer-level negative read on Anthropic's coding product versus OpenAI's.
  3. No listed Anthropic equity exists; read as a competitive signal for OpenAI's tooling.

Acquired

Home Depot

14 Eyl 202642h

This is a historical narrative episode about Home Depot's founding, growth, Nardelli-era troubles, and Frank Blake turnaround, not an investment-recommendation episode. The hosts frame Home Depot as one of the best-performing stocks in S&P 500 history since its 1981 IPO, noting its $350B market cap, but they never explicitly recommend buying or shorting it. The only adjacent investable view is around Costco/Price Club as the model Bernie Marcus admired, mentioned in passing rather than as a call.

Fikirler · 2

• 2:04HDLongHosts repeatedly frame Home Depot as an 'all timer' whose IPO investment would have beaten Apple and compounded ~25%/year for 45 years, though they stop short of an explicit buy call. — Speaker 0-%1,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “if you put a thousand dollars into Home Depot and Apple and their IPOs and you held them all today, your investment in Home Depot would beat your investment in Apple” — Speaker 0

  1. The hosts state $1,000 in the 1981 Home Depot IPO would be worth about $17M today versus $170,000 in the S&P 500.
  2. They note HD is the #1 total-return stock in the S&P 500 since its IPO and trades at a $350B market cap.
  3. That historical outperformance is presented as the story's premise rather than an actionable recommendation to buy today.
• 37:54COSTLongBernie Marcus takes Frank Blake to a Costco store walk as the embodiment of great retailing values, and Price Club's warehouse model is described as blowing away competitors. — Speaker 1-%0,5 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “he's got this new store concept that he's launching down there in San Diego. And I'm telling you, man, it's gonna revolutionize the whole retail industry” — Speaker 1

  1. The hosts say Price Club/Costco's warehouse model was 'blowing everybody else in San Diego out of the water' with no backroom, no distributors, and direct-from-manufacturer buying.
  2. Bernie considers Costco the archetype of the retail values he wants Home Depot to recapture, taking new CEO Frank Blake there first.
  3. This is contextual admiration of the model, not an explicit investment recommendation in the episode.

Odd Lots

Robert Friedland on the World's Monumental Shortage of Copper

12 Eyl 202685h

Robert Friedland of Ivanhoe Mines/Ivanhoe Electric makes a wide-ranging case that the world faces a monumental copper and critical-metals shortage, driven by electrification, AI data centers and defense demand, while supply is constrained by declining ore grades, permitting, equipment backlogs and balkanized supply chains. He is broadly bullish on copper and related critical metals and notes that hyperscaler demand is pulling innovation into mining. He mentions Bloom Energy's stock rising because solid oxide fuel cells need scandium as an alternative power source for data centers.

Fikirler · 1

• 55:33BELongFriedland notes Bloom Energy's stock has gone up because its solid oxide fuel cells can provide uninterruptible power for data centers, and these cells depend on scandium metal. — Robert Friedland-%6,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Ergo Bloom Energy, their stock has gone up because they have solid oxide fuel cells as an alternative to, to generate electrical energy for a data center.” — Robert Friedland

  1. Friedland says data centers need uninterruptible power and gas turbines have seven-year waits, so Bloom Energy's solid oxide fuel cells are an alternative.
  2. He explicitly says to build a solid oxide fuel cell you need scandium metal, tying Bloom's products to critical materials.
  3. He observes Bloom Energy's stock has already risen, implying continued demand for its fuel cells.

All-In Podcast

AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI's Math Breakthrough, Nike's $200B Collapse

11 Eyl 202694h

▶YouTube'da izle

Pozisyonlar · 2

• ▶ 10:37ANTHROPICKaçınSacks and Chamath argue Anthropic's contradictory doomer stance creates massive product-liability and quiet-period disclosure risk that undermines its IPO and public-market appeal. — David Sacks-%0,9 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I do think that there's a tension here in Anthropic's position that I do think implicates their IPO process.” — David Sacks

  1. Sacks calls the resignation an orchestrated operation and says Anthropic's own safety lead is 'cosigning' it, creating a fundamental contradiction.
  2. Chamath notes this damages the S-1 process: public investors underwriting trillions now must weigh existential/liability admissions.
  3. Resulting stance: avoid Anthropic exposure given legal and IPO overhang.
• ▶ 1:30:41NKELongWhile Nike is blamed for 'go woke, go broke' and DTC missteps, Chamath sees it as a 'coiled spring' if it returns to its North Star of mastery and excellence, and would buy back in. — Chamath Palihapitiya-%1,6 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “If they find mastery and excellence as their north star again, I think they'll be fine because I think it's a coiled spring in terms of its potential.” — Chamath Palihapitiya

  1. Chamath says Nike lost its 'mastery and excellence' North Star and alienated retail partners.
  2. But he believes the brand still has enormous potential if it re-centers.
  3. Trade: long NKE on a potential turnaround.

Fikirler · 8

• ▶ 1:34:20METALongMeta is highlighted as a sponsor of the All-In Summit with a Meta Glasses Experience Hub and a keynote from its president/vice chair, signaling continued AI/AR momentum. — Jason Calacanis+%3,3 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “We're also excited that Meta will be in the hizzy. President and vice chair, Dina Powell McCormick, will join us on stage, plus there's a Meta Glasses Experience Hub.” — Jason Calacanis

  1. Host mentions Meta will be at the summit with Dina Powell McCormick on stage and a Meta Glasses hub.
  2. That implies continued investment in smart glasses and AI.
  3. Beneficiary: META as the parent executing that strategy.
• ▶ 1:19:05NVDALongSacks frames Jensen Huang's dismissal of the Anthropic doomer claims as authoritative and pro-technology, implicitly favoring NVIDIA's continued AI infrastructure demand. — David Sacks-%2,7 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Jensen is speaking at a conference right now... and he just said that the Jacob Coxen comments are outlandish and deeply untrue.” — David Sacks

  1. Sacks reports Jensen called the Coxen comments 'outlandish and deeply untrue' and praised the labs' safety work.
  2. This positions NVIDIA's leadership as aligned with continued AI compute buildout.
  3. Beneficiary: NVDA as the key AI compute supplier.
• ▶ 1:04:29OPENAIKaçınChamath and Sacks warn that frontier-model vendors like OpenAI can't guarantee zero data retention, so enterprises should avoid exposing IP and instead run sovereign/open-source models. — Chamath Palihapitiya-%4,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “It's a commercially best efforts basis at that. They can't guarantee it.” — Chamath Palihapitiya

  1. Chamath says ZDR is 'commercially best efforts' and leakage happens through prompts/embeddings.
  2. Sacks adds OpenAI's own release admits deidentified data may improve models.
  3. Conclusion: avoid using OpenAI APIs for sensitive proprietary data despite product value.
• ▶ 1:08:05MSFTKaçınOpenAI → As OpenAI's key partner and investor, Microsoft faces the same data-leakage trust issue that Chamath says will push enterprises to sovereign/open-source alternatives. — Chamath Palihapitiya+%0,6 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “if you don't go through these hoops because you took a standard rate card API deal... you'll probably get fired.” — Chamath Palihapitiya

  1. Chamath discusses OpenAI's inability to guarantee ZDR.
  2. Microsoft's Azure OpenAI service requires the same trust in OpenAI models.
  3. Beneficiary of avoidance: MSFT exposed to shift away from frontier APIs.
• ▶ 1:05:28AMZNLongChamath recommends AWS as a trusted vendor to stand up sovereign AI deployments on bare metal, directly benefiting AWS as the go-to infrastructure provider. — Chamath Palihapitiya-%3,2 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “you need to go to a vendor that you trust, could be AWS. In terms of the neoscalers, could be Nebius” — Chamath Palihapitiya

  1. Chamath says enterprises should go to a trusted vendor like AWS for on-prem/VPC solutions.
  2. This is part of the fix for data leakage.
  3. Beneficiary: AMZN via AWS compute demand.
• ▶ 1:17:25PLTRLongSacks invokes 'the Alex Karp world' of protecting your alpha, aligning with Palantir's sovereign AI and data-control positioning. — David Sacks+%2,8 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Now we're in the Alex Karp world of you're giving them all your alpha.” — David Sacks

  1. Sacks references Alex Karp in the context of not giving away your alpha to frontier models.
  2. Palantir's core pitch is sovereign, secure AI infrastructure.
  3. Beneficiary: PLTR as the enterprise AI control layer.
• ▶ 1:28:07ONLongChamath and Friedberg cite On Running as a beneficiary of Nike's missteps, with Federer's mastery/excellence appeal driving share gains. — Chamath Palihapitiya-%3,6 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I finally moved to Ons for one reason because I'm like, oh, Roger Federer. He's excellence in mastery.” — Chamath Palihapitiya

  1. Chamath says he moved to Ons because of Roger Federer and the brand's aspirational positioning.
  2. Nike's lost retail space and brand equity went to competitors like On.
  3. Beneficiary: ONON as a share gainer.
• ▶ 1:28:19BRKBLongBrooks → Friedberg highlights Brooks (owned by Berkshire) as a compounding, high-quality business with nine years of double-digit revenue growth, reflecting well on Berkshire's consumer holdings. — David Friedberg+%1,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “You know this company is owned by Berkshire Hathaway? And they've grown this company nine years in a row, double digit revenue growth to 1,600,000,000 in revenue.” — David Friedberg

  1. Friedberg says Brooks is owned by Berkshire Hathaway and has grown double digits for nine years to $1.6B in revenue.
  2. Buffett's directive to improve product yearly has driven compounding.
  3. Beneficiary: BRK.B via Brooks' success.

The Ramsey Show

Normal Money Habits Don’t Build Wealth

11 Eyl 2026107h

Pozisyonlar · 5

• 1:41:06TransamericaKaçınThe IUL policy pitched to callers is through Transamerica and Ramsey calls the product 'absolutely horrendous' and 'basically the payday lender of the middle class.' — Speaker 0–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “It's not technically a scam, but it's just so bad that it feels like a scam.” — Speaker 0

  1. Caller says the IUL being pushed on her is through Transamerica.
  2. Ramsey and Campbell say the product is terrible, with high commissions and capped returns.
  3. They tell the caller to run from it, implying avoidance of the company and its product.
• 1:03:12SCHWKaçınRamsey says he would not use Charles Schwab for these mutual funds because of transaction fees and prefers a SmartVestor Pro. — Speaker 0+%0,7 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Vanguard's great. Charles Schwab I don't know I'm mad at Charles Schwab.” — Speaker 0

  1. Caller says Charles Schwab offers the mutual funds he wants but with a transaction fee.
  2. Ramsey responds that he would use a SmartVestor Pro instead and says 'I'm mad at Charles Schwab.'
  3. This suggests avoiding Schwab for this use case, though the conviction is low and the comment is casual.
• 1:03:12VanguardLongRamsey praises Vanguard as 'great' in the context of holding retirement accounts and mutual funds. — Speaker 0–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Vanguard's great.” — Speaker 0

  1. Caller mentions Vanguard holds his IRAs and asks about transaction fees.
  2. Ramsey says 'Vanguard's great' before turning to his dislike of Schwab's fee.
  3. This is an explicit but low-conviction positive mention of Vanguard.
• 1:06:28SSPXLongRamsey recommends putting extra investing money into an S&P 500 brokerage account earmarked for a future house down payment. — Speaker 0-%0,5 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I might go to something just like an S and P 500, a brokerage account, and let it grow for a down payment on a house.” — Speaker 0

  1. Caller asks if she can invest more than 15% of income.
  2. Ramsey says extra investing above 15% could go into something like an S&P 500 brokerage account.
  3. He frames this as a down payment fund rather than retirement, endorsing the index as a vehicle.
• 1:03:01Mutual FundsLongRamsey urges a caller sitting in money market funds to move into good mutual funds, arguing he has missed years of stock market gains. — Speaker 2–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “The stock market doubled in the last five years. So if that money was sitting in money market, trust me.” — Speaker 2

  1. Caller admits his IRAs and brokerage have been sitting in money market funds for years.
  2. Ramsey and Campbell say the market doubled in the last five years and that he lost way more on the sidelines.
  3. They encourage him to get invested in the four mutual fund categories with a SmartVestor Pro.

Prof G Markets

Why The Bond Market Is Starting To Revolt — ft. Katie Martin

11 Eyl 2026109h

Pozisyonlar · 1

• 1:06:45US Federal Reserve rate path (Fed funds)ShortMartin explicitly expects the Fed to hike rates before year-end: 'I do. Yeah... If inflation stays sticky and payrolls keep doing what they're doing, I don't see how Walsh has a choice.' — Katie Martin–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Do you think we see a rate hike before the end of the year? I do. Yeah.” — Katie Martin

  1. Blowout 162k jobs report moved market odds to a two-in-three chance of a hike
  2. Martin says sticky inflation and strong payrolls force Warsh to hike this month or before year-end
  3. Higher rates mean higher borrowing costs and further pressure on bonds

Fikirler · 10

• 5:27TLTKaçınMartin: governments are 'borrowing too much damn money' and bond investors now demand a higher return, so long-end Treasuries are unattractive. — Katie Martin+%0,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “The twenty nine year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since before the financial crisis... bond investors say, I'll buy these bonds, but it's gonna cost you.” — Katie Martin

  1. Martin says US debt passed $40tn and debt-service costs exceed defense spending
  2. Bond investors now demand higher yields to lend, pushing 30-year above 5.25%
  3. Long-duration Treasury exposure faces further yield-driven losses, especially if Warsh hikes
• 52:41METALongMartin notes investors view Meta's corporate bonds as competitive with Treasuries, saying 'I'm pretty comfortable with Meta as a credit risk' and buying its paper instead of government debt. — Katie Martin+%3,4 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I'm pretty comfortable with Meta as a as a credit risk, I'm gonna buy the Meta bond instead.” — Katie Martin

  1. Martin says hyperscalers now borrow heavily in bond markets to fund AI capex
  2. She cites an investor choosing Meta's bond over US government debt on same-day issuance
  3. Implies Meta is perceived as a strong credit with an attractive spread, supporting sentiment
• 54:09QQQKaçınMartin warns the AI trade dominates stocks, private markets and corporate credit and is 'bending everything out of whack,' so everyone's portfolio is effectively an active tech bet. — Katie Martin-%0,9 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “When people talk about the AI trade being really dominant in stock markets, that is not even half the story... It's bending everything out of whack.” — Katie Martin

  1. Martin says AI exposure is now shot through equities, private credit and corporate bonds
  2. Every index investor, even EM or Korea/Taiwan/Japan, is really buying a tech fund
  3. If the AI trade falls over, 'a lot of things would go wrong at the same time'
• 55:34OPENAIKaçınMartin flags that OpenAI and Anthropic are in talks with rating agencies to get investment-grade ratings, calling the strategy 'a little bit iffy' and part of the concentration risk. — Scott Galloway-%3,6 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Anthropic and OpenAI are now having conversations with credit agencies about getting an investment grade credit rating, and it sounds like their strategy is just to ask them nicely to give them a low rate... another red flag.” — Scott Galloway

  1. FT reporting: Anthropic and OpenAI talking to credit agencies for investment-grade ratings
  2. Scott asks them to give a low rate, which he sees as a red flag
  3. Martin acknowledges it looks 'iffy from the outside' and AI credit is underappreciated risk
• 55:34ANTHROPICKaçınScott calls Anthropic's and OpenAI's approach to rating agencies a 'red flag,' and the hosts flag their upcoming IPOs as a key AI-concentration risk to watch. — Scott Galloway+%2,0 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Anthropic and OpenAI are now having conversations with credit agencies about getting an investment grade credit rating... it feels like this is extremely big deal.” — Scott Galloway

  1. Scott flags FT report that Anthropic/OpenAI are seeking investment-grade ratings
  2. He says it's 'iffy' and an underappreciated red flag for markets
  3. Both IPOs cited as critical events for second-half 2026 AI sentiment
• 20:21UK giltsKaçınMartin says the UK had to 'really pay up' for new debt with borrowing costs highest since 1998, and the UK is a 'shit show' that hasn't grown in ten years. — Katie Martin–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “The UK issued some government debt today... the borrowing costs on that were the highest since 1998.” — Katie Martin

  1. UK issued government debt at highest borrowing costs since 1998
  2. Martin attributes weak UK growth to Brexit's lasting damage
  3. Higher yields plus stagnant growth make gilts unattractive
• 29:19French government bonds (OATs)KaçınMartin warns France's polarized politics risks 'a real loss of investor confidence' going into next year's presidential election, though the ECB backstop limits the downside. — Katie Martin–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “There's a serious risk that when we have presidential election next year that this could could lead to a real loss of investor confidence in France.” — Katie Martin

  1. France cannot pass a budget due to a hollowed-out political middle
  2. Martin sees serious risk of loss of investor confidence in next year's election
  3. ECB support programs make an outright debt crisis unlikely but OATs remain vulnerable
• 16:40SPYLongMartin says it's 'very hard for stocks to lose at the moment because companies are just making so much damn money' and the Fed would likely cut to stop the bleeding. — Katie Martin-%0,4 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “It's very hard for stocks to lose at the moment because companies are just making so much damn money.” — Katie Martin

  1. US companies are making 'bucket loads of cash' with great earnings beyond AI
  2. Moral hazard: the Fed would likely cut rates if stocks really took a hit
  3. That dynamic keeps equity downside limited for now
• 24:10Italy government bonds (BTPs)LongMartin notes Italian borrowing costs are now below France's and 'the market likes what Italy's been up to' on fiscal consolidation. — Katie Martin–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Italian borrowing costs are a little bit lower than France's... Market likes what Italy's been up to. France is your problem right now.” — Katie Martin

  1. Italy has done a good job with fiscal consolidation relative to peers
  2. Italian yields have fallen below French yields, a notable shift
  3. Relative fiscal improvement supports Italian debt
• 57:17VGKLongMartin says clients want non-tech exposure and 'the UK and Europe look pretty good from that regard as diversifiers. So they're actually doing surprisingly well in this environment.' — Katie Martin–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “The UK and Europe look pretty good from that regard as diversifiers. So they're actually doing, you know, surprisingly well in this environment.” — Katie Martin

  1. Asset-management clients want tech stripped out of international allocations
  2. UK and Europe are relatively under-owned for non-tech exposure
  3. Rising demand for ex-tech international diversification could support these markets

Prof G Markets

Anthropic Whistleblower Says AI Could “Kill Us All”

10 Eyl 2026133h

Pozisyonlar · 3

• 11:41AAPLLongMcGee says the new iPhone 18 Pro will 'do just fine' and he's 'probably going to buy that,' even though he's skeptical of the $2,000 foldable Duo. — Patrick McGee+%4,2 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I think the I 18 Pro, the the new version of the best iPhone will do just fine, and people will buy that. I'm probably going to buy that.” — Patrick McGee

  1. McGee dismisses the foldable Duo as a low-volume halo product with no clear use case for him.
  2. He explicitly separates it from the flagship iPhone 18 Pro, which he expects to sell well and plans to buy himself.
  3. Net read: core iPhone demand intact, so Apple stays a hold/buy despite Duo skepticism.
• 22:47OPENAIKaçınKharazian warns of extreme customer concentration: 80% of OpenAI/Anthropic enterprise revenue from 1% of businesses, and those top spenders are cutting AI spend ~10% month-over-month. — Ara Kharazian-%5,8 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “1% of customers driving 80% of that spend... the market is relatively underpricing.” — Ara Kharazian

  1. Ramp data shows 80% of AI lab enterprise revenue comes from 1% of customers, mostly correlated high-growth tech and AI startups.
  2. Those top 1% spenders cut per-employee spend from $8k to $7.2k MoM even as token volume rose, aided by price wars toward cheaper models.
  3. Kharazian says the market is 'underpricing' this concentration risk, a caution flag on the AI trade ahead of the OpenAI IPO.
• 23:44ANTHROPICKaçınSame Ramp data: Anthropic's enterprise revenue is dangerously concentrated in 1% of customers who are now pulling back, with spend shifting to lower-margin standard/light models. — Ara Kharazian-%1,9 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “you start to see a couple other negative trends... increasing share of that volume of AI spend volume by businesses going toward the standard and light models” — Ara Kharazian

  1. Kharazian: Anthropic and OpenAI derive ~80% of enterprise revenue from 1% of businesses that are highly correlated.
  2. The shift toward cheaper standard/light models (Sonnet, Terra) over frontier models pressures margins even as volume grows.
  3. He flags this as underpriced concentration risk into Anthropic's confidential IPO filing.

Fikirler · 2

• 10:48AAPLKaçınMcGee doubts the $2,000 foldable iPhone Duo becomes a generational hit, comparing it unfavorably to the iPad's clear new-category positioning. — Patrick McGee+%4,2 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “Is the iPhone Duo trying to position itself like that? That's the sense I got from the new CEO, John Ternis, but I'm not really convinced.” — Patrick McGee

  1. McGee says the Duo is impressive hardware but he isn't 'convinced' it addresses a real need beyond an iPad with keyboard.
  2. He notes Apple may already be baking in low sales expectations, similar to the iPhone Air's weak sales.
  3. Conclusion: don't underwrite the Duo as Apple's next growth engine.
• 26:15MSFTKaçınOpenAI → you have Anthropic and OpenAI, which are contributing to, like, 70 or 80% of the AI revenues of these, big data center companies like Microsoft — Ed Elson+%1,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “you have Anthropic and OpenAI, which are contributing to, like, 70 or 80% of the AI revenues of these, big data center companies like Microsoft” — Ed Elson

  1. Kharazian documents that OpenAI/Anthropic enterprise spend is concentrated and slowing.
  2. Elson notes those labs contribute 70-80% of AI revenue for data-center companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google.
  3. If lab spend decelerates, the mega-cap AI revenue narrative faces the same concentration risk.

Odd Lots

The Rise of Organized Retail Crime at Big Box Stores

10 Eyl 2026133h

This Odd Lots episode features Scott Glenn, VP of asset protection at Home Depot, discussing organized retail crime, shrink, cargo/rail theft, fencing on peer-to-peer marketplaces, RFID/AI surveillance technology, and pending federal legislation (CORCA). The most market-relevant views are his bullishness on legislative momentum against organized retail crime and his repeated criticism of Meta's Facebook Marketplace for not policing stolen goods, though no explicit buy/sell recommendations or price targets on any listed security were made.

Fikirler · 1

• 40:42METAKaçınHome Depot's asset protection chief says Facebook Marketplace tolerates stolen-goods resellers and could do far more policing, a reputational/regulatory risk for Meta. — Scott Glenn+%1,8 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “We think they could do more... It seems a little backwards to me that I should have to come and tell them that they've got somebody selling stolen product on their site” — Scott Glenn

  1. Glenn says peer-to-peer markets like Facebook Marketplace are where fenced stolen goods now get sold after the INFORM Act pushed activity off Amazon/eBay.
  2. He says he is 'both disappointed and surprised' Meta doesn't act on obvious red flags like new-in-box drills sold below retailer cost.
  3. That makes Marketplace a target for tighter regulation, a modest negative for META shares.

We Study Billionaires

TIP845: Copart Stock (CPRT): Is Copart Now a Buy? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley

10 Eyl 2026141h

Daniel and Shawn analyze Copart (CPRT) after its recent pullback, discussing its moats, competitive threats from IAA and Progressive, and the CEO transition from Jeff Liaw back to Jay Adair. They conclude Copart is a high-quality business but is fairly valued at current prices with decelerating growth, and they decide to pass on adding it to their portfolio for now, waiting for a potentially cheaper entry point. They also mention a rumored acquisition of CCC Intelligent Solutions and international expansion as growth catalysts.

▶YouTube'da izle

Fikirler · 2

• ▶ 1:06:49CPRTLongI don't feel like Copart is, you know, the opportunity that now stands out to me when I look at the rest of our portfolio, where I immediately feel like we gotta sell, you know, one of the companies, then make it happen and buy Copart. — Daniel Mahncke–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “I don't feel like Copart is, you know, the opportunity that now stands out to me when I look at the rest of our portfolio, where I immediately feel like we gotta sell, you know, one of the companies, then make it happen and buy Copart.” — Daniel Mahncke

  1. They highlight risks: declining volume from insurers like Progressive, a recent CEO change, and the potential for market share loss to IAA, which tempers their enthusiasm.
  2. Despite acknowledging upside if growth reaccelerates, they decide to pass for now, waiting for a better entry or more evidence of a turnaround.
• ▶ 1:01:27CCC Intelligent SolutionsLongDaniel notes CCC's stock is down ~27% with price-to-operating-cash-flow at ~10x, and it could be a strategic fit for Copart if acquired, though this is speculative based on a rumor. — Daniel Mahncke–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “And I think currently, CCC's stock is down about 27%, so close to 30% over the past year, and price to operating cash flow has declined from over 30 to about 10 times.” — Daniel Mahncke

  1. Daniel discusses the rumored takeover of CCC by Copart, noting CCC's software sits between insurers and repair shops, and has 300 insurers and 27 of top 30 as customers.
  2. He sees potential synergies like faster cycle times and natural hedging, and mentions the stock is cheap at ~10x OCF due to slowing growth and AI fears.
  3. However, this is a rumor with no confirmed deal, and he has not deeply researched it, so any investment is speculative.

The Ramsey Show

Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Peace

9 Eyl 2026155h

Dave Ramsey and Jade Warshaw discuss multiple callers' financial crises due to overspending on houses and vehicles, offering advice to sell assets and avoid bankruptcy by liquidating equity. Ramsey stresses avoiding single stocks and recommends growth stock mutual funds over bonds, using recent S&P performance as proof. He discusses REITs as an acceptable additional investment only after paying off the house and funding retirement.

Fikirler · 7

• 1:07:55SPYLongRamsey uses S&P 500 returns as benchmark, implying investors should own it. — Dave Ramsey-%0,8 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “year to date on the S and P 500, my stock growth stock mutual fund in an S and P has averaged 12.2%” — Dave Ramsey

  1. Ramsey quotes year-to-date S&P 500 return of 12.2% and says bond market under 1%.
  2. He advocates growth stock mutual funds over bonds for long-term growth.
  3. Thus implies long S&P 500 index fund.
• 2:05:31Growth Stock Mutual FundLongRamsey repeatedly promotes mutual funds (specifically growth) for retirement investing. — Dave Ramsey–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “you can just open a mutual fund... it'll do a lot better than high yield savings” — Dave Ramsey

  1. Ramsey suggests mutual funds as 15% retirement investment for most callers.
  2. He asserts mutual funds outperform single stocks and bonds.
  3. Long mutual fund is implied.
• 1:50:01AAPLKaçınRamsey discourages owning single stocks like Apple because he says they underperform mutual funds. — Dave Ramsey+%4,9 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “we got money in single stocks, which I don't own a single, single stock, not one” — Dave Ramsey

  1. Caller Cheryl mentions she picked random stocks including Apple.
  2. Ramsey says he doesn't own single stocks and advises selling them.
  3. Avoid single stocks is implied.
• 1:50:01AMZNKaçınSame as Apple, Ramsey advises against single stocks like Amazon. — Dave Ramsey-%2,9 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “you've got money in single stocks, which I don't own a single, single stock, not one” — Dave Ramsey

  1. Cheryl mentions picking Amazon among random stocks.
  2. Ramsey's advice: sell single stocks and invest in mutual funds.
  3. Avoid Amazon is implied.
• 1:08:00BondsKaçınRamsey argues bonds underperform and fail to keep up with inflation, so avoid them. — Dave Ramsey–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “the bond market has averaged since the beginning of the year? Less than 1%” — Dave Ramsey

  1. Caller Karen lost money in bonds via a financial advisor.
  2. Ramsey says bonds returned less than 1% while stocks 12.2%.
  3. He recommends staying out of bonds even at older ages.
• 1:51:22HOODKaçınRamsey says Robinhood is for trading single stocks, which he doesn't recommend. — Dave Ramsey-%8,1 bölümden beri
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “The purpose of Robinhood... to democratize... the ability to buy and sell single stocks” — Dave Ramsey

  1. Cheryl opened Robinhood account and hasn't used it.
  2. Ramsey explains Robinhood's purpose is single stock trading, not investing.
  3. Avoid Robinhood as a platform for serious investing.
• 1:18:43REITLongRamsey allows REITs only as an addition after being financially secure. — Dave Ramsey–
  Bu işlemin gerekçesi

  “if you wanted to do a REIT as a way to get to real estate, I would. That'd be okay” — Dave Ramsey

  1. Steve asks if REITs can replace direct real estate.
  2. Ramsey says yes, but only in baby step 7 and not instead of growth funds.
  3. Long REIT is acceptable with qualifications.