Podcast trade ideas

Odd Lots

How Wall Street Is Bracing For the Post-Jensen Huang Nvidia Era

Nov 14, 202630h

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon explains why he downgraded NVIDIA to market-perform and halved his price target after CEO Jensen Huang's dismissal over an undisclosed relationship with a subordinate, citing key-man risk, a leadership vacuum in supply-chain handshake deals and long-term roadmap decisions, and escalating China-hawk investigations. He still likes the data-center story and calls the stock cheap but says he cannot advocate buying the dip, while noting competitors (AMD, Broadcom, Google TPUs) benefit as customers diversify.

Positions · 1

• 9:37NVDAAvoidRasgon downgraded NVDA and halved his target because Jensen Huang's ouster creates key-man and road-map risk plus a wave of investigations, making it too hard to advocate owning the stock despite a cheap multiple. — Stacy Rasgon-1.3% since episode
  Why this trade

  “if I can't sit in front of a client and advocate, I think absolutely you should be buying this dip. It's hard for me to maintain the buy on it.” — Stacy Rasgon

  1. Huang was fired over conduct, and Rasgon says the stock faces ongoing news flow, subpoenas and government pressure.
  2. NVIDIA's supply chain and customer commitments were built on Huang's personal handshakes and long-term architecture bets, which a new CEO may not sustain.
  3. He cut the rating and target rather than recommend buying the dip, though near-term numbers look intact.

Ideas · 3

• 30:55AMDLongRasgon notes AMD has been running on the belief a weaker long-term NVIDIA roadmap strengthens rivals, with GPU sales implied to nearly triple year over year into the low $40 billions in 2027. — Stacy Rasgon-1.2% since episode
  Why this trade

  “AMD is, if you back into it, they're kind of suggesting that their GPU sales will probably almost triple year over year” — Stacy Rasgon

  1. He says AMD's roadmap is getting better and customers increasingly diversify away from NVIDIA.
  2. AMD has guided to implied GPU revenue near the low $40 billions as it takes share.
  3. This makes AMD a relative beneficiary of NVIDIA's leadership turmoil, though he frames it as observation rather than a formal call.
• 30:40AVGOLongRasgon flags Broadcom as one of the diversified AI-chip winners, citing company guidance for data-center revenue to double to ~$115B in 2027 and double again in 2028 as custom-chip customers expand. — Stacy Rasgon-1.2% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Broadcom has suggested that their data center revenues will double year over year in 'twenty seven to like 115,000,000,000 and will double again in 2028” — Stacy Rasgon

  1. He says customers like OpenAI, Meta and Google are using multiple chip sources beyond NVIDIA.
  2. Broadcom's custom silicon business benefits, with management guiding data-center revenue to roughly $115B in 2027 and double again in 2028.
  3. Rasgon frames competitors as strong in the wake of NVIDIA's turmoil, an implicit relative long.
• 29:58GOOGLLongRasgon notes Google is starting to sell TPUs externally to more customers, broadening its AI-chip franchise as buyers diversify away from NVIDIA. — Stacy Rasgon-0.5% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Google is now starting to sell TPUs to on a secondary basis as well. So, that is happening.” — Stacy Rasgon

  1. He says more customers are using TPUs and Google is now selling them on a secondary basis.
  2. That expands Alphabet's AI silicon beyond internal use at a time rivals' roadmap confidence is shaken.
  3. Passing mention only, so low conviction and not an explicit buy.

Odd Lots

Why a $2 Billion Law Firm Suddenly Collapsed

Nov 13, 202654h

The episode dissects the sudden collapse of law firm Weil Gotshal through the lens of the partnership/ownership model, arguing that relative (not absolute) profitability decline drove rainmakers to leave, triggering a bank-run-like spiral. Professor John Morley contrasts this with investor-owned Slater and Gordon, which restructured rather than collapsed, and predicts law firms will rent rather than build AI. No listed stocks are explicitly recommended, so there are no actionable equity calls.

No actionable calls in this episode

Odd Lots

What Nvidia's Megaspeed Scandal Is Really All About

Nov 12, 202678h

This episode is a reported deep-dive on the Megaspeed scandal and Nvidia's exposure to chip-smuggling and export-control risk, rather than a stock-picking show. The most actionable thread is the hosts' framing of the ongoing export-control/remote-access controversy as a 'big tail risk' for Nvidia and other chipmakers. No host or guest explicitly recommends buying or shorting a specific listed security, so no explicit picks are recorded.

No actionable calls in this episode

Odd Lots

The Perfect Storm That Clobbered Hedge Funds

Nov 11, 2026102h

Ideas · 4

• 43:01CRWVLongBall notes the neocloud index is down 70% and massively oversold with very negative positioning, implying the sell-off was overdone and positioning has now cleaned up. — Michael Ball-12.3% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Also again, they're massively oversold. That index is down 70%. These are all sitting very negative positioning as well” — Michael Ball

  1. Ball says neocloud names are massively oversold, down 70%, and sitting on very negative, expensive-to-hold positioning.
  2. He sees room for 'new guys to step in' once positioning stabilizes and flags CoreWeave's earnings as the next catalyst.
  3. Tilt is toward stabilization/mean-reversion rather than an explicit buy recommendation.
• 42:29IRENLongBall flags IREN's strong compute demand and better-than-feared free cash flow from customer prepayments, though he warns of leverage and rate sensitivity. — Michael Ball-21.4% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Iren came out last week and said basically the prepayments from customers was quite good. So the free cash flow is looking better for that particular name.” — Michael Ball

  1. Ball says IREN's prepayments were good, so free cash flow is improving and borrowing needs may fall.
  2. He calls its compute demand growth 'very impressive' but notes lots of leverage and rate sensitivity.
  3. Overall view that the drawdown may have been overdone rather than a firm buy call.
• 47:22NVDALongBall argues the AI trade is now bigger than any single company and he sees nothing making Nvidia's cornerstone role shaky, treating recent moves as mechanical short-covering rather than narrative change. — Michael Ball-8.1% since episode
  Why this trade

  “as the cornerstone, and I'm not yet seeing anything that would make me think that's shaky” — Michael Ball

  1. Ball says the AI trade 'has become bigger than the Anthropics and Nvidia's' and the cornerstone doesn't look shaky.
  2. He attributes the prior day's rally to a squeeze of shorts and put-covering, i.e., mechanical rather than narrative-driven.
  3. Supports staying constructive on Nvidia as central AI infrastructure despite the Jensen news.
• 52:17Oil (Brent crude)AvoidBall sees a positive barrel backdrop as geopolitical risk premium fades and inventories build, though he cautions the path is bumpy and oversold. — Michael Ball–
  Why this trade

  “as far as oil, like the backdrop is actually positive if we can sort of end this kind of overhang of geopolitical risk premium” — Michael Ball

  1. Ball says the oil backdrop is positive if the geopolitical risk premium fades, with JPMorgan raising its surplus estimate.
  2. Crack spreads and European gas have fallen, easing the energy pulse into core CPI.
  3. Suggests skew has come down, but he notes oversold conditions after a $10-15 move, so the view is cautious/avoid on further upside.

Odd Lots

This Is How New York City Takes Out Its Trash

Nov 9, 2026150h

This Odd Lots episode is a non-market conversation with Joshua Goodman, Deputy Commissioner of NYC's Department of Sanitation, about the city's 'trash revolution' — moving from curbside black bags to containerization, plus recycling, composting, and a custom-built automated side-loading collection truck. No host or guest makes any stock, ETF, or tradable-asset recommendation; only operational details (e.g., Mack chassis, European bodies, transfer stations) are mentioned with no investment view attached. There are no actionable picks.

No actionable calls in this episode

Odd Lots

The Macro Implications of the Blue Tsunami

Nov 6, 2026222h

Ideas · 4

• 42:46STRLAvoidHosts flag Sterling's chart as a '.com chart' after it fell from a $1,000 stock in June to $255 as data-center construction politics and economics shift. — Joe Wiesenthal–
  Why this trade

  “That was a thousand dollar stock in June. And as of right now, it's a $255 stock.” — Joe Wiesenthal

  1. Tracy notes Sterling builds data centers in Texas and its chart looks like a .com bubble chart.
  2. Joe confirms the stock went from a $1,000 stock in June to $255 now, a massive drawdown.
  3. The takeaway is caution/avoidance on data-center construction exposure amid political and capex shifts.
• 28:42TSLAAvoidTesla fell 10% as the post-2024 election trade unwinds and Musk's political bets look costly, with hosts skeptical of any payoff from his political involvement. — Joe Wiesenthal+10.9% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Tesla shares declined 10%. Yeah. SpaceX shares fall another 7%... 7.5%.” — Joe Wiesenthal

  1. Joe notes Tesla shares declined 10% and SpaceX fell 7.5%, after being hammered the prior day.
  2. Amarnath frames this as unwinding the 2024 election response where stocks that backed Trump ripped higher.
  3. Hosts question whether Musk got anything from politics, implying continued pressure/avoidance.
• 28:42SPCXAvoidSpaceX shares fell 7.5% as the post-election trade unwinds and its large Texas footprint faces a newly blue state political landscape. — Joe Wiesenthal+9.2% since episode
  Why this trade

  “SpaceX shares fall another 7%... 7.5%.” — Joe Wiesenthal

  1. Joe notes SpaceX shares fell another 7.5% after being hit hard the prior day.
  2. Amarnath ties the selloff to unwinding the 2024 election response from companies that spent heavily on Trump.
  3. Texas turning blue overnight creates new political risk for SpaceX's Texas operations.
• 22:14ORCLAvoidOracle is cited as pressure filtering through the cap stack as hyperscalers shift from cash-funded capex to debt and now equity issuance. — Tracy Alloway+4.0% since episode
  Why this trade

  “some of them, like Oracle, are starting to issue new equities.” — Tracy Alloway

  1. Tracy notes hyperscalers went from spending cash on capex to borrowing in the bond market.
  2. She adds some, like Oracle, are now starting to issue new equities.
  3. That equity issuance signals capex pressure across the capital stack, a cautionary signal for ORCL.

Odd Lots

James Bosworth on What Comes After Lula's Stunning Win

Nov 5, 2026246h

James Bosworth explains Lula's upset win in Brazil as a second-round referendum on Flavio Bolsonaro, and warns prediction markets were overconfident. On markets, he says oil majors like Chevron and Exxon are interested in Venezuela but won't commit meaningful capital until rule-of-law certainty and a democratic transition arrive, so near-term oil upside is limited. He also gives a 96% call that Democrats take the US House.

Positions · 1

• 33:28US House of Representatives (Democratic control)LongBosworth gives a 96% probability that Democrats take the House, saying he feels very confident making that call on election day. — James Bosworth–
  Why this trade

  “I am 96% certain the Democrats are gonna take the House of Representatives.” — James Bosworth

  1. He states he is 96% certain Democrats will take the House of Representatives.
  2. He contrasts this with the Senate, which he calls closer to a coin flip.
  3. Resulting view: a high-conviction baseline for Democratic House control.

Ideas · 4

• 29:04CVXLongChevron is already in Venezuela and will stay for decades, but Bosworth frames a durable big-cap oil opportunity only once contracts are respected. — James Bosworth+1.4% since episode
  Why this trade

  “Chevron is in. Chevron was in before Chevron will be in for the next fifty years.” — James Bosworth

  1. Bosworth says Chevron is in Venezuela and will be in for the next fifty years as a long-term incumbent.
  2. He stresses the majors want rule-of-law certainty before committing 10-30 year capital.
  3. Chevron is the positioned listed incumbent if a democratic transition improves contract security.
• 29:04XOMLongExxon, kicked out under Chavez, is interested in Venezuela's oil but won't jump in until contracts are certain - a catalyst-dependent long. — James Bosworth+0.9% since episode
  Why this trade

  “The rest of the oil majors, including Exxon and Conoco, who were kicked out under the Chavez era, they're interested.” — James Bosworth

  1. Bosworth says Exxon and Conoco were kicked out under Chavez but remain interested in Venezuela's 'sea of oil'.
  2. He notes none of the major firms will go in prior to certainty that contracts will be respected.
  3. Therefore, Exxon is a conditional beneficiary of a democratic transition and rule-of-law restoration.
• 29:04COPLongConoco was expelled under Chavez but remains interested in Venezuela; it re-enters only after political certainty improves contract law. — James Bosworth+3.4% since episode
  Why this trade

  “The rest of the oil majors, including Exxon and Conoco, who were kicked out under the Chavez era, they're interested.” — James Bosworth

  1. Bosworth names Conoco among oil majors interested in returning to Venezuela.
  2. He explains that major firms require rule-of-law certainty before long-term investment.
  3. A free election and respected contracts are the trigger for Conoco to commit capital.
• 29:21Venezuela oil sectorAvoidBosworth says the oil majors are not jumping into Venezuela - smart money stays out until rule-of-law certainty exists, leaving only small, short-term players. — James Bosworth–
  Why this trade

  “None of the larger firms want to go into Venezuela prior to some certainty that their contracts will be respected.” — James Bosworth

  1. He says the major firms do not want to enter Venezuela prior to certainty their contracts will be respected.
  2. Instead, small companies looking for quick deals, not long-run builds, are moving in.
  3. Without democracy and legal certainty, the sector's recovery, and hence large-cap exposure, is premature.

Odd Lots

An Election Day Special With Nate Silver

Nov 3, 2026294h

Nate Silver joins Odd Lots for an election-day special focused on midterm modeling, polling accuracy, and prediction markets (Polymarket). The most market-relevant thread is a loose policy point: Silver expects little legislative action before 2028 except possibly on AI, and flags that candidates seen as too pro-AI/data-center could be punished, with Texas Governor Greg Abbott called the most 'prolifically pro data center' governor. No explicit stock, ETF or asset trade is recommended; discussion is political and methodological rather than investment calls.

No actionable calls in this episode

Odd Lots

The $300 Billion Structured Notes Market Is Booming

Nov 2, 2026318h

Structured-note expert Alex Mikolitsy of Nomura explains the booming ~$300B US registered structured-note market, where high-net-worth investors sell puts/get yield via autocallables and worst-of baskets on the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell as well as single names like semis and hyperscalers. He details how dealer hedging of these products creates spot-up/vol-up dynamics and short-gamma flows that could amplify downside if the AI trade reprices. The hosts frame this as technical flow, not a direct directional stock recommendation, so no explicit stock calls are made.

No actionable calls in this episode

Odd Lots

PHP2Shell Won't Be the Last Big AI Cybersecurity Risk

Oct 30, 2026391h

This Odd Lots episode features Calif CEO Tai Yun and engineer Bruce Dang discussing how AI has accelerated vulnerability discovery and exploitation, using the PHP2Shell bug (found with OpenAI and Wiz) as the centerpiece. They argue AI currently helps attackers more than defenders and that the 'centaur' era of human-plus-AI hacking may be brief, implying rising cybersecurity risk and demand. No explicit buy/sell/hold recommendations are made; the market-relevant takeaway is thematic, not a stock call.

No actionable calls in this episode