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Moshe Orenbuch (TD Cowen): analyst track record on stock perps

Moshe Orenbuch of TD Cowen on companies with stock perpetual futures: star rating, success rate, price-target accuracy, current calls and the measured perp reaction after each rating.

Stars5★

Success69%

Excess return+22.5%

rank#84

Ratings484

ratings on stock perps85

Track record

TipRanks data via FMP

	12 months	3 years
Ratings	146	408
Stock	23	25
Buy / hold / sell	100 / 38 / 8	230 / 146 / 32
Upgrades / downgrades / initiations	2 / 0 / 2	5 / 1 / 19
Price targets hit / missed	33 / 113 (23%)	216 / 190 (53%)
Avg. return after a rating (TipRanks)	-9.2%	+19.8%
Best / worst call	+59.3% / -50.4%	+1,451.5% / -50.4%

After buy calls: median 21-day move +2.8% · vs S&P 500 +0.9% · targets hit within a year 56% (n = 82)

Current calls on stock perps

Stock	Call	Target	vs last close	Date
$AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc.	Buy · Maintained	$124	+82.4%	Aug 28, 2026
$COF Capital One	Buy · Maintained	$253	+22.2%	Aug 17, 2026
$SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc.	Hold · Reiterated	$18.00	+4.6%	Jul 30, 2026
$AXP American Express	Hold · Reiterated	$338	+5.4%	Jul 27, 2026

Recent ratings

Aug 28, 2026 $AFRM: Maintained · Buy · $124 · article
Aug 17, 2026 $COF: Maintained · Buy · $253 · article
Jul 30, 2026 $SOFI: Reiterated · Hold · $18.00 · article
Jul 27, 2026 $AXP: Reiterated · Hold · $338 · article
Jul 22, 2026 $COF: Reiterated · Buy · $253
Jun 15, 2026 $COF: Maintained · Buy · $260 · article
May 13, 2026 $AFRM: Maintained · Buy · $90.00 · article
Apr 30, 2026 $SOFI: Reiterated · Hold · $18.00 · article
Apr 21, 2026 $COF: Reiterated · Buy · $260 · article
Mar 31, 2026 $COF: Maintained · Buy · $260 · article
Mar 31, 2026 $AXP: Maintained · Hold · $330 · article
Mar 31, 2026 $AFRM: Maintained · Buy · $80.00 · article
Mar 31, 2026 $SOFI: Maintained · Hold · $17.00 · article
Mar 16, 2026 $COF: Maintained · Buy · $290 · article
Feb 17, 2026 $COF: Maintained · Buy · $290 · article
Feb 5, 2026 $AFRM: Maintained · Buy · $95.00 · article
Feb 2, 2026 $SOFI: Maintained · Hold · $24.00 · article
Jan 30, 2026 $AXP: Maintained · Hold · $375 · article
Jan 22, 2026 $COF: Maintained · Buy · $290 · article
Jan 8, 2026 $AFRM: Maintained · Buy · $110 · article

Moshe Orenbuch5★ · 69% success · +22.5% excess return · TipRanks data via FMP · Source headlines via TheFly/StreetInsider (FMP). Reaction = venue-median perp move after our detection — an observation, not investment advice.