Ideas de trading de podcasts

All-In Podcast

Blake Scholl: Why Plane Speed Stalled, Supersonic Commercial Flight, & Revolutionizing the Engine

22 sept 20269h

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Ideas · 2

• ▶ 11:17UALLongUnited is a launch customer holding Boom Overture orders; Scholl says any fare above the ~$3,500 break-even means United 'makes some good money' on supersonic transatlantic routes. — Blake Scholl–
  Por qué esta operación

  “But any dollar above that, United's making some good money.” — Blake Scholl

  1. Scholl says Boom has 130 orders from major airlines and that above the ~$3,500 break-even round-trip fare, it's profitable for the airline.
  2. United is named as the airline customer of Boom's Overture in the episode context.
  3. If Boom delivers, United gains a differentiated premium transatlantic product potentially yielding above-break-even economics.
• ▶ 13:31TSLALongColossus (xAI data center) → When asked if Elon is interested in Boom's data center power for Colossus, Scholl demurs with 'You should ask Elon' - suggesting Boom's 42MW trailerized power could supply xAI's Colossus data center. — Speaker 4+0,5 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Did you did you talk to Elon about it? You did you is he interested for the Colossus?” — Speaker 4

  1. Scholl describes Boom's ground power product: 42 megawatts per trailer, no water needed, running next month.
  2. Host asks if Elon is interested for the Colossus data center; Scholl's non-denial implies engagement.
  3. Tesla is Musk's primary listed AI/energy-adjacent vehicle, though energy supply to Colossus is more likely private xAI.

Prof G Markets

Pod Title: David Ellison’s Media Takeover Just Got Greenlit

22 sept 202610h

The Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger cleared its final legal hurdle after 12 state AGs settled, which reporter Rohan Goswami calls an 'unmitigated victory' for David Ellison and a positive for the combined company's business outlook. Ed Elson remains bullish on Meta after its MetaMuse AI agent launch drove the stock up 11%, though he flags Amazon's blocking of MetaMuse as a new competitive risk for AI agents. Separately, housing analyst Connor Sen describes a bifurcated, frozen US housing market with 7% mortgage rates hurting entry-level buyers most.

Posiciones · 1

• 27:30METALongElson says he was bullish on MetaMuse and Meta as a company, calling it the quintessential free consumer AI agent, and notes the stock rose 11% since his call. — Ed Elson-0,4 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “On yesterday's episode of Prophecy Markets, I explained why I was bullish on MetaMuse and on Meta as a company.” — Ed Elson

  1. Elson explicitly states he was bullish on Meta and its MetaMuse AI agent on the prior episode.
  2. The market agreed, sending Meta stock up more than 11% since.
  3. He remains constructive on Meta even while flagging new agent-access risk.

Ideas · 3

• 11:00PSKYLongGoswami says the settlement is an 'unmitigated victory' for David Ellison, who twice bested opponents, boding well for the combined Paramount-Warner Bros. business. — Rohan Goswami+11,4 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “There are any number of ways that you can wiggle in and out of them. But I would say just on a on a high level note, a lot of people doubted Ellison, myself included. He has now twice bested his opponents” — Rohan Goswami

  1. Goswami argues the AG settlement removes the main structural obstacle to the Paramount–WBD deal and is a clear win for Ellison.
  2. He notes Ellison beat Netflix for Paramount and now the states, which 'does bode well from a business perspective' for the combined company.
  3. Implication: the merged Paramount–Warner Bros. entity is well positioned, supporting the acquirer's stock.
• 12:18WBDLongGoswami's view that the deal closing is a win for the combined company and that CNN's cash generation protects its assets implies value for WBD shareholders being acquired. — Rohan Goswami+9,8 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “any decision that reduces the cash generative potential of CNN, which does, I think, throw off five to six hundred million dollars worth of EBIT annually still, would be monumentally stupid” — Rohan Goswami

  1. Goswami says the settlement clears the deal, which was holding up a transaction WBD shareholders are being bought out in.
  2. He stresses Ellison has no business reason to diminish CNN, which still throws off $500-600M EBIT annually, preserving asset value.
  3. Thus the acquired WBD assets retain business value through the closing.
• 29:54AMZNEvitarElson highlights Amazon blocking MetaMuse from its products as the opening of a more hostile, walled-garden phase for AI agents, drawing a competitive 'knife'. — Ed Elson-1,7 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Amazon just drew one, but the question now is if the other companies will too.” — Ed Elson

  1. Elson says Amazon has blocked MetaMuse from accessing any and all products on amazon.com.
  2. He frames this as 'Amazon just drew one,' potentially starting a chapter of less integration and technological seclusion.
  3. This competitive escalation introduces risk to the AI agent landscape Amazon is now shaping.

BiggerPockets Money

Dividend Investing vs Index Funds: Which Is Better for Financial Independence?

22 sept 202614h

Posiciones · 13

• 14:51MSFTLongEli's large personal holding: double-digit free cash flow growth funds a fast-growing, very safe dividend at a 20-30% payout ratio. — Eli Breeze-0,4 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Microsoft is a large holding in my portfolio. Broadcom is a large holding in my portfolio. Visa” — Eli Breeze

  1. Eli says Microsoft is a large holding in his portfolio with low yield but rapid dividend growth.
  2. Microsoft converts roughly 20-30% of free cash flow into dividends, leaving ample room to keep raising it.
  3. Buy as a long-term dividend-growth compounder, not for today's yield.
• 17:36AVGOLongEli's biggest winner: bought four years ago at ~3% yield, now a sub-1% yield but his yield on cost is already ~4-5% via double-digit dividend growth. — Eli Breeze-0,5 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Broadcom's a good example. That's probably the biggest winner in my portfolio. I guess I added it a little over four years ago.” — Eli Breeze

  1. Eli says he added Broadcom a little over four years ago and it's the biggest winner in his portfolio.
  2. Yield on cost is roughly 4-5% already because the dividend grows at an extremely high rate.
  3. Hold/buy as a growth dividend compounder in the AI era.
• 14:51VLongEli names Visa a large portfolio holding whose projectable, predictable cash flows make the dividend exceptionally safe. — Eli Breeze-1,3 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Microsoft is a large holding in my portfolio. Broadcom is a large holding in my portfolio. Visa, these are stocks” — Eli Breeze

  1. Eli lists Visa among his large holdings alongside Microsoft and Broadcom.
  2. He describes these as stocks with very safe dividends and predictable free cash flow.
  3. Own as a durable dividend-growth holding.
• 26:02VICILongEli holds VICI: ~7% yield and 75% AFFO payout ratio look compelling despite tenant-concentration risk as its two largest tenants go private. — Eli Breeze–
  Por qué esta operación

  “I hold VICI in my portfolio. I think it's an interesting higher yielder, personally.” — Eli Breeze

  1. Eli notes VICI's AFFO payout ratio of ~75% is at management's stated target.
  2. Two largest tenants are ~70% of rent roll and going private, pushing the stock down and yield up.
  3. Eli says he holds VICI and finds it interesting at these prices.
• 21:23MPLXLongEli added MPLX at an ~8.5% yield with management guiding 12.5% distribution growth, though its cash flows are less predictable than mega-cap tech. — Eli Breeze–
  Por qué esta operación

  “MPLX is a stock that I added. Guess I it was the beginning of this year, maybe early twenty twenty five. At the time, it was yielding roughly 8.5%.” — Eli Breeze

  1. Eli says he added MPLX at the beginning of 2025 when it yielded roughly 8.5%.
  2. Management has guided toward 12.5% distribution growth, hard to beat for dividend growth.
  3. Buy for high starting yield plus inflation-beating distribution growth.
• 34:44SCHDLongEli's index answer for dividend-growth exposure: SCHD tracks the Dow Jones US Dividend 100 index, ~3% yield with a 10.24% 10-year dividend CAGR. — Eli Breeze–
  Por qué esta operación

  “start with the Schwab US dividend equity ETF. Right now, the trunk twelve month yield looks like sitting at about 3%.” — Eli Breeze

  1. Eli says if individual stock analysis is intimidating, follow SCHD, which tracks the Dow Jones US Dividend 100 index.
  2. That index has outperformed the S&P 500 over full market cycles in the cited backtests.
  3. Own SCHD as the simple dividend-growth core, especially for those closer to needing yield.
• 32:53DGROLongEli cites DGRO's blue-chip holdings (Microsoft, JPMorgan, J&J, Apple, Broadcom) as established large caps with healthy balance sheets and dividend runway. — Eli Breeze–
  Por qué esta operación

  “if we look at DGRO, this is the iShares core dividend growth ETF. Look at the top holdings in this. We have Microsoft as the top holding.” — Eli Breeze

  1. Eli points to DGRO's top holdings as companies people can feel comfortable holding long term.
  2. He ties dividend-growth success to such low-volatility large-cap compounders with reasonable payout ratios.
  3. Use DGRO as a diversified dividend-growth vehicle.
• 49:27SPYLongScott and Mindy favor the traditional S&P 500 / 4%-rule approach over dividend-growth, arguing dividend growth only wins in bear markets and lacks proven accumulation advantage. — Scott Trench0,0 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “I'm hearing, well, then I need double the terminal portfolio in order to sustain my cost of living on a 2% dividend yield.” — Scott Trench

  1. Scott says he remains unconvinced dividend growth beats index accumulation and wouldn't want to need double the portfolio at a 2% yield.
  2. He explicitly frames the 4% rule portfolio (S&P 500 index) as his default for early retirement.
  3. Stick with broad index + 4% withdrawal as the base case.
• 40:51TBGLongEli cites the Bonson-run TBG as the fund retirees should target: ~4% yield with dividend growth above inflation. — Eli Breeze–
  Por qué esta operación

  “TBG is an ETF that his company runs. They target about a 4% yield with fairly high levels of dividend growth.” — Eli Breeze

  1. Eli says David Bonson's firm runs TBG, targeting about a 4% yield with fair dividend growth.
  2. He calls this 'the type of fund you should probably be targeting' for those needing yield near retirement.
  3. Use TBG as the higher-yield retirement-phase dividend fund.
• 26:14IIPRLongEli's model high-yield portfolio added IIPR preferreds at ~$23 for a 10% yield with 16x dividend coverage, calling it an incredible high-yield opportunity. — Eli Breeze–
  Por qué esta operación

  “we added Innovative Industrial Properties preferred shares, which at the time was trading at about $23 and yielding 10%.” — Eli Breeze

  1. Eli says they added Innovative Industrial Properties preferred shares at about $23 yielding 10%.
  2. He cites 16 times dividend coverage as the safety case.
  3. Buy as a high-yield, well-covered income position.
• 35:06OLongEli suggests retirees add REITs like Realty Income, yielding 4-5% with inflation-beating dividend growth. — Eli Breeze–
  Por qué esta operación

  “Throw some REIT exposure in there, you know, some Realty Income, Agree Realty. These REITs that are yielding four to 5%” — Eli Breeze

  1. Eli recommends adding REIT exposure for those pursuing yield near retirement.
  2. He names Realty Income among REITs yielding 4-5% and growing dividends above inflation.
  3. Use as a yield-boosting income sleeve.
• 35:06ADCLongEli suggests Agree Realty alongside Realty Income as a 4-5%-yielding REIT with above-inflation dividend growth for yield-seeking investors. — Eli Breeze–
  Por qué esta operación

  “Throw some REIT exposure in there, you know, some Realty Income, Agree Realty. These REITs that are yielding four to 5%” — Eli Breeze

  1. Eli names Agree Realty as a REIT yielding 4-5%.
  2. He says it grows dividends above inflation, qualifying it as a growth-yielder.
  3. Add as a REIT income position.
• 35:06ETLongEli cites Energy Transfer as an MLP with a strong balance sheet, ~8% yield and low commodity-price exposure. — Eli Breeze–
  Por qué esta operación

  “There's some great energy companies with strong balance sheets who aren't exposed to commodity price exposure yielding 8% like energy transfer” — Eli Breeze

  1. Eli names Energy Transfer among MLPs with strong balance sheets and ~8% yields.
  2. He frames them as not directly exposed to commodity prices.
  3. Add for high yield plus growing distributions.

Ideas · 3

• 23:40MOEvitarMindy avoids Altria on ethical grounds (tobacco) despite its 6.3% yield; Eli flags its ~80% free cash flow payout ratio makes the dividend vulnerable in a downturn. — Mindy Jensen+0,2 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “I don't invest in Altria because they used to be called Philip Morris. They make cigarettes, and I don't want to support that company.” — Mindy Jensen

  1. Mindy says she doesn't invest in Altria because it makes cigarettes.
  2. Eli notes Altria's ~80% free cash flow payout ratio means a 20% FCF drop would cut the dividend.
  3. Avoid or at least treat as a riskier high-yield name.
• 58:40UPSEvitarMindy finds UPS's 6.6% yield understandable and may dabble, but Eli warns declining volumes and poor capital allocation weaken the dividend. — Mindy Jensen–
  Por qué esta operación

  “UPS. I know UPS. I understand their business model. There are other companies that I either don't want to invest in their business model” — Mindy Jensen

  1. Mindy says the 6.6% yield on UPS is 'a lot more understandable' but caps her interest at dabbling.
  2. Eli says UPS has declining volumes and capital allocation 'doesn't look good'.
  3. Treat UPS's high yield with caution on dividend safety.
• 5:18TXNLongEli's case study for dividend durability: TXN took 17 years to recover post-dot-com but raised its dividend over 2300% without ever cutting it. — Eli Breeze-0,8 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “if you look at a lot of the underlying companies, even stocks that like Texas Instruments, for example.” — Eli Breeze

  1. Eli says Texas Instruments took 17 years to recover its dot-com high but never reduced its dividend.
  2. Its payout grew over 2300% in that window, demonstrating dividend resilience in bear markets.
  3. Illustrates the 'safe dividend' screen the strategy relies on.

All-In Podcast

Naveen Rao: 4D Computing, AI's Energy Wall & Beating Biology

21 sept 202621h

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Ideas · 2

• ▶ 2:59DatabricksLongRao's prior company MosaicML joined Databricks and now accounts for roughly a quarter of its revenue, showing how fast enterprise AI model-building demand scaled. — Speaker 1–
  Por qué esta operación

  “We decided to actually join forces with Databricks. That was in 2023, and and actually, that's a quarter of the total revenue of of Databricks today.” — Speaker 1

  1. Rao says his GPU-platforming startup joined Databricks in 2023 and that it represents about a quarter of Databricks' total revenue today.
  2. That implies rapid revenue contribution from AI infrastructure within the broader Databricks data/AI platform.
  3. Suggests continued enterprise AI demand tailwind for Databricks and comparable AI infrastructure players.
• ▶ 20:06Unconventional AILongPrivate AI chip startup claims a first physical dynamical computer with ~1,000x power-efficiency target and a data center rack product within two years. — Speaker 1–
  Por qué esta operación

  “we're within two years of of getting it to a full product... we're building a new data center product first. So it's a whole rack.” — Speaker 1

  1. Rao says Unconventional AI taped out its first dynamical-computer chip in June and already has results.
  2. He claims this is orders of magnitude more efficient than GPUs and targets a full data center rack product within two years.
  3. Private, pre-revenue hardware bet; no listed ticker available at this time.

The Ramsey Show

Stop Living in Financial Chaos

21 sept 202632h

Ideas · 2

• 1:10:06Gold and Silver Mining Stocks (sector)EvitarJohn and George warn caller Craig's heavy concentration in gold/silver miners is risky, impulsive behavior driven by grief rather than sound strategy. — John Deloney–
  Por qué esta operación

  “I wouldn't do any of the things you're doing. Zero of them.” — John Deloney

  1. Craig reveals he invests 'heavily in gold and silver mining stocks' inside his retirement accounts and holds $260,000 in precious metals.
  2. The hosts say his strategy is 'madness,' 'bizarre risk' and driven by panic/avoidance of grief after divorce.
  3. They advise sitting down with an investment pro to slow down and reconsider the concentrated bet.
• 1:10:55GGOLDEvitarThe hosts question Craig's $260,000 in precious metals, noting you can't pay bills with bars of gold and the position is part of an impulsive, risky retirement strategy. — George Campbell+0,1 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “you're talking about de risking, but then you have all these single stocks, and you got money over here, and then there's these precious metals, which you're gonna have to liquidate” — George Campbell

  1. Craig holds $260,000 in precious metals 'securely' as part of his $1.3M net worth.
  2. George notes he'd have to liquidate metals to turn into actual money to live on because 'you can't pay your bills with bars of gold yet.'
  3. Hosts characterize the overall plan as impulsive and risky, not endorsing the allocation.

Prof G Markets

How Meta Could Quietly Win The AI Race

21 sept 202634h

The hosts argue the Fed's surprise quarter-point rate hike was the right call for inflation and Fed independence, though they warn higher rates and a 10-year yield above 5% could pressure stocks near term. Their most actionable view is bullish Meta: Ed owns it (bought around $564), expects MetaMuse to rival ChatGPT and Claude on the consumer side, and both note Meta trades cheaply versus Big Tech, while Ed calls Apple a sell. They also flag Canada/EU trade realignment as a shift away from the US and predict a country or bloc will ban US frontier AI models within 90–180 days.

Posiciones · 6

• 42:19METALongMetaMuse's consumer AI launch leverages Meta's unmatched first-party data and nine-of-ten internet-user reach, and the stock is still cheap versus Big Tech. — Ed Elson+8,7 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “I bought in June $564 a share. I'm up around 20%... But I still think it has room to run because it's cheap.” — Ed Elson

  1. Ed says he bought Meta in June at $564/share and is up ~20%, arguing it has room to run because it's cheap.
  2. Scott argues Meta's 4B monthly users and first-party data give it a unique advantage in consumer AI via MetaMuse.
  3. Resulting trade: stay long META as the AI product gains adoption and multiples remain below peers.
• 1:04:51METALongMetaMuse will see significant adoption and rival ChatGPT and Claude on the consumer side within six months. — Ed Elson+8,7 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “My prediction, I think that MetaMuse will see significant adoption. I think it'll be rivaling ChadGBT and Claude in the next six months... on the consumer side.” — Ed Elson

  1. Ed predicts MetaMuse will see significant adoption over the next six months, rivaling ChatGPT and Claude on the consumer side.
  2. Meta leveraged open source and first-party data to ship a cheap, useful consumer agent that tracks tasks users actually want.
  3. Resulting trade: long META as consumer AI adoption drives engagement and transaction take-rate.
• 42:05AAPLEvitarApple trades at 38x earnings, which Ed finds remarkably expensive, and he still doesn't think it's anywhere close to a buy. — Ed Elson+1,6 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Apple, 38 times earnings. I'm just still blown away by the by how expensive Apple stock is right now. I still don't think it's anywhere close to a buy. I think it's a sell, actually.” — Ed Elson

  1. Ed reviews Big Tech PE multiples and notes Apple at 38 times earnings, the richest of the group.
  2. He says he is blown away by how expensive Apple stock is and sees no value at this price.
  3. Resulting trade: avoid/sell AAPL versus cheaper peers like Meta at 25x.
• 42:19MSFTLongEd cites Microsoft among his bullish picks, up more than 20%, as part of his broad AI-linked Big Tech longs. — Ed Elson+0,9 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “I think it's pretty clear that I've had multiple bullish picks, including Meta and Microsoft and Salesforce and ServiceNow, which are up all up more than 20% at this point.” — Ed Elson

  1. Ed says he has had multiple bullish picks including Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce and ServiceNow.
  2. He contrasts Big Tech valuations, noting Microsoft's adjusted PE around 28x.
  3. Resulting trade: long MSFT as a cheaper mega-cap AI beneficiary among his picks.
• 42:19CRMLongEd lists Salesforce among his bullish picks, all up more than 20% at this point. — Ed Elson-2,3 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “I've had multiple bullish picks, including Meta and Microsoft and Salesforce and ServiceNow, which are up all up more than 20% at this point.” — Ed Elson

  1. Ed says he has had multiple bullish picks including Salesforce, up more than 20%.
  2. He uses these picks to rebut claims he is a permabear.
  3. Resulting trade: long CRM as one of his identified winners.
• 42:19NOWLongEd lists ServiceNow among his bullish picks, up more than 20% at this point. — Ed Elson+1,2 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “I've had multiple bullish picks, including Meta and Microsoft and Salesforce and ServiceNow, which are up all up more than 20% at this point.” — Ed Elson

  1. Ed says his bullish picks include ServiceNow, up more than 20%.
  2. He cites these gains to counter criticism that he is a permabear.
  3. Resulting trade: long NOW as one of his identified winners.

Ideas · 5

• 37:58OPENAIEvitarScott warns OpenAI and Anthropic are fragile, hating their doomerism and suggesting frontier labs could lose 70% of value within a year if there's a public AI incident. — Scott Galloway+6,5 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “I have never seen 2,000,000,000,000 plus companies, Anthropic and OpenAI, more fragile right now... they could be down 70% in value within twelve months.” — Scott Galloway

  1. Scott says he has never seen $2T+ companies like Anthropic and OpenAI more fragile and that people hate them.
  2. He suggests they could be down 70% in value within twelve months if a frontier-model mishap causes public backlash.
  3. Resulting trade: avoid exposure tied to OpenAI/Anthropic frontier-model economics.
• 37:58ANTHROPICEvitarScott sees Anthropic and OpenAI as fragile and disliked, with Anthropic's doomerism opening a void Meta is filling. — Scott Galloway+0,7 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “I have never seen 2,000,000,000,000 plus companies, Anthropic and OpenAI, more fragile right now. I think there's a fairly... People hate them.” — Scott Galloway

  1. Scott says Anthropic and OpenAI are more fragile than ever and people hate them.
  2. Ed cites Ramp data showing Anthropic's enterprise share at 8% versus Astra at 13%, suggesting it is falling behind.
  3. Resulting trade: avoid Anthropic-linked exposure as Meta and others gain share.
• 31:50GOOGLLongEd's dinner test shows Google Gemini passed the task, positioning Alphabet's Gemini as a capable consumer AI agent despite extra confirmation steps. — Ed Elson-0,1 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Gemini presented Dan with some restaurants... Then it asked to confirm again... It passed the test, but with a lot of extra steps and a lot of annoying confirmations.” — Ed Elson

  1. Ed tested four agents (Muse, Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini) on a booking task and Gemini completed the reservation.
  2. The product is relevant to a huge consumer use case, though it required more confirmations than Meta's Muse.
  3. Resulting trade: mild positive for GOOGL's Gemini consumer-agent positioning.
• 14:59TLTLongEd notes the 10-year yield rose above 5% and warns higher rates mean bonds offer higher risk-free returns, transferring capital from equities to credit. — Ed Elson0,0 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “the ten year yield rose again above 5%, and I think that is gonna be the really important thing to keep track of.” — Ed Elson

  1. Ed says the 10-year yield rose again above 5% and that the jury is out on inflation expectations.
  2. Scott notes a transfer of capital from equity markets into bond markets as bonds offer 5-6% risk-free.
  3. Resulting trade: bonds/credit become relatively more attractive than equities in this hiking environment.
• 18:08SPYLongScott notes that historically after a first Fed hike the S&P 500 typically gains about 9% over the following twelve months, favoring staying invested. — Scott Galloway+1,0 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “while initially a hike takes the S and P down over the following twelve months, there's typically on average a 9% gain, in the S and P.” — Scott Galloway

  1. Scott cites economic history that a first hike takes the S&P down initially but averages a ~9% gain over the following year.
  2. He argues the market responds well to fiscal discipline and Fed independence.
  3. Resulting trade: stay long broad US equities (S&P 500) over a 12-month horizon.

Odd Lots

How LA Is Quietly Becoming America's New Industrial Tech Hub

21 sept 202634h

This episode features Chris Power (founder of Hadrian, an autonomous contract manufacturer) and Tom Mueller (founder of Impulse Space, SpaceX employee #1) discussing US reindustrialization, defense manufacturing, the China industrial threat, tariffs, and robotics in space. There are no direct stock or asset recommendations, buys, shorts, or avoids; Musk's SpaceX is described effusively as proof that large-scale US manufacturing is possible, and other companies (Northrop Grumman, Boeing, Tesla, etc.) are mentioned only as employers, competitors for talent, or context, not as investment calls.

Ideas · 1

• 35:37SPCXLongMueller argues SpaceX proves reindustrialization works in the US, with Starship reaching aircraft-like operational status and capabilities repeatedly dismissed as impossible now realized. — Tom Mueller-0,3 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “It's not hype. He's gonna build it. It's I I believe if it's possible, it will be solved.” — Tom Mueller

  1. Mueller says people always doubted SpaceX could build engines, reach orbit, fly humans, or build Starship, yet it did all of these.
  2. SpaceX is a private company, so the view is an implicit positive on its prospects rather than a tradable call.
  3. No direct purchase recommendation is made; the enthusiasm is about capability, not a trade.

All-In Podcast

Adam Foroughi, Applovin CEO: Surviving a 92% Drawdown, Ads as ML 1.0 & the $50B Game Ad Market

20 sept 202646h

AppLovin CEO Adam Foroughi discussed the company's transformation from a regression model to a deep-learning advertising platform, its massive addressable market in mobile gaming and e-commerce discovery, and its extreme stock volatility (from a $3.8B market cap back to $250B). The most actionable takeaway is his aggressive share buyback as a key driver of value, alongside strong EBITDA margins and growth into new markets like e-commerce.

▶Ver en YouTube

Posiciones · 1

• ▶ 12:13APPLongAppLovin's deep learning ad platform is scaling into a $50B mobile gaming market and e-commerce, with 84% EBITDA margins and aggressive buybacks driving shareholder value. — Adam Foroughi+5,3 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “we kicked off a super aggressive buyback program and and over the since then, I think we bought roughly $6,000,000,000 of the company's stock” — Adam Foroughi

  1. Foroughi claims AppLovin's ML 2.0 ad model creates discovery and economic expansion for advertisers, growing ad spend from $11B to $20B on its platform.
  2. High margins and strong cash flow allowed the company to buy back ~$6B of stock, retiring 20-25% of shares, which amplified returns.
  3. As the stock re-rates, continued execution in e-commerce and mobile gaming should drive further upside.

We Study Billionaires

RWH072: The Making of A Money Master w/ Rob Vinall

20 sept 202666h

Rob Vinall of RV Capital explains his evolution to a management-focused, concentrated value investor who targets a '15% owner return' and now holds roughly a third of his portfolio in China. He flags a bifurcated, momentum-driven market where most stocks are down sharply even as the S&P makes highs, and specifically says he bought Constellation Software during the software selloff in March. He also voices strong admiration for Carvana's Ernie Garcia and Meta's Mark Zuckerberg, and lists Luckin Coffee, Tencent, H World and Yum China as attractive founder-led Chinese holdings.

Posiciones · 7

• 1:21:42CSULongVinall bought it in the March software selloff because it is full of owner-operators and has less egregious stock-based compensation, so its owner earnings are real. — Rob Vinall–
  Por qué esta operación

  “what led you to Constellation Software... you bought it in early March... it's filled with leaders and in many respects filled with founders” — Rob Vinall

  1. He says a theme of his investing is betting on people making a business their life's work, and Constellation is 'very much' that case.
  2. He notes CEO Mark Miller came from the first company Leonard bought and that Constellation avoids the sector's excessive stock-based compensation.
  3. Result: he bought Constellation Software in early March during the 'SaaSpocalypse' software selloff.
• 55:02CVNALongVinall is a long-term holder who thinks founder Ernie Garcia is the epitome of a life's-work founder and that the market's suspicion of his integrity is a total misperception. — Rob Vinall–
  Por qué esta operación

  “Ernie Garcia is the polarizing figure he is. I mean, he is just... the absolute epitome of the kind of founder building a business into his life's work” — Rob Vinall

  1. He claims he will never understand why Ernie Garcia is such a polarizing figure, calling him the epitome of the founder building a life's work.
  2. He recounts the chin-up story showing Garcia's fierce refusal to lose, evidence of the drive he looks for.
  3. Result: he remains a committed long-term owner despite the 98% drawdown and short-seller attacks.
• 1:00:59METALongVinall admires Zuckerberg as a founder who could stop but keeps working from passion, and sees the widespread criticism of Meta as a misperception to exploit. — Rob Vinall+10,4 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “someone like Mark Zuckerberg who so obviously has almost an impossible job balancing all these competing interests... still does, I would argue, from a place of passion” — Rob Vinall

  1. He says it is a mystery why Zuckerberg, who obviously does not need the money, remains such a controversial figure.
  2. He argues people are reflexively negative about large businesses, citing the old Nestle conspiracy as a parallel.
  3. Result: he stays a long-term admirer and holder of Meta.
• 1:11:15LKNCYLongA founder-led Chinese consumer company with a wide moat trading at a very attractive valuation, fitting his 15% owner-return hurdle. — Rob Vinall–
  Por qué esta operación

  “I'm looking for passionate founders and all of those companies are still run by their founder... I'm looking for wide moats... and attractive valuations” — Rob Vinall

  1. Vinall lists Luckin as a China holding run by its founder with an obvious wide moat.
  2. He expects at least 10% earnings growth plus 5%+ returned via dividends/buybacks, reaching his 15% owner return.
  3. Result: he owns it as part of a one-third China weighting bought while China is out of favour.
• 1:10:29TCEHYLongFounder-led, wide-moat internet giant available cheaply because China is out of favour, with 10%+ earnings growth plus strong capital returns. — Rob Vinall+7,4 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “ended up with Luckin Coffee... and Tencent Holdings... I would expect the earnings growth to be at the very least 10% in the coming years” — Rob Vinall

  1. He names Tencent among his founder-run Chinese holdings with obvious wide moats.
  2. He says these companies should grow earnings at least 10% and return 5%+ of capital annually.
  3. Result: he holds Tencent and previously Prosus as a discounted way to own it.
• 1:10:53HTHTLongFounder-led Chinese hotel operator with a wide moat bought at an attractive valuation while the market's China perception stays negative. — Rob Vinall–
  Por qué esta operación

  “And I think H World Group and Yum China Holdings. Mhmm. Like, why why are those four?” — Rob Vinall

  1. Vinall lists H World among the four founder-run Chinese names he owns.
  2. He applies the same criteria as anywhere: passionate founder, wide moat, cheap valuation.
  3. Result: it contributes to the roughly one-third China portfolio weighting.
• 1:11:04YUMCLongFounder-run Chinese restaurant franchise with a wide moat, bought cheap while China remains deeply unpopular with global investors. — Rob Vinall–
  Por qué esta operación

  “I'm very conscious when I invest in China that I don't speak the language... keep it very simple... looking for passionate founders” — Rob Vinall

  1. He lists Yum China as one of his four founder-led Chinese holdings.
  2. Same screening criteria: founder still running it, wide moat, attractive price.
  3. Result: part of the one-third of the fund invested in China.

Odd Lots

A Goldman M&A Banker Helped Bring the Olympics to Los Angeles

19 sept 202682h

Ideas · 10

• 16:45CMCSALongNBC holds US media rights through 2036 at over $1.5B per Games, locking in premium advertising inventory for LA 2028. — Gene Sykes-1,8 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “NBC is the media rights holder for The United States, and they've got a deal that now goes through 2036... It's a billion and $0.5 or more per games” — Gene Sykes

  1. Sykes says NBC is the US media rights holder with a deal through 2036 at $1.5B+ per Games.
  2. NBCUniversal is a subsidiary of Comcast, so Comcast captures those Olympic ad revenues.
  3. Positioning for the largest-ever Olympics supports Comcast's media segment.
• 17:08VLongVisa is an existing IOC sponsor with global brand exposure across the Games, benefiting from the world's biggest sporting event. — Gene Sykes-0,3 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Then the IOC also sells a bunch of sponsorships to people like Coca Cola and Visa and Samsung.” — Gene Sykes

  1. Sykes names Visa among IOC sponsors 'around every one of the Olympic Games'.
  2. Sponsorship provides global brand visibility and hospitality engagement.
  3. LA 2028 expected to be 'the biggest event in the history of the world' amplifies the partnership's reach.
• 17:08KOLongCoca-Cola's long-running IOC sponsorship keeps it embedded in the highest-visibility global sporting event, aiding brand strength. — Gene Sykes+0,6 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Then the IOC also sells a bunch of sponsorships to people like Coca Cola and Visa and Samsung.” — Gene Sykes

  1. Sykes identifies Coca-Cola as an IOC sponsor.
  2. IOC sponsorships deliver worldwide marketing and hospitality access.
  3. LA 2028's unprecedented scale increases sponsorship value.
• 17:08SAMSUNGLongSamsung's IOC sponsorship provides a global platform for product showcase around the Olympics. — Gene Sykes+10,3 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Then the IOC also sells a bunch of sponsorships to people like Coca Cola and Visa and Samsung.” — Gene Sykes

  1. Sykes names Samsung among top IOC sponsors.
  2. Sponsorship gives category exclusivity and global brand exposure.
  3. LA 2028 expected to draw massive worldwide audience.
• 17:24SBUXLongStarbucks secured domestic LA 2028 sponsorship, gaining local activation rights around a massive event. — Gene Sykes+3,7 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “But then the domestic organizers get the opportunity to sell more rights, and so they've sold rights to Starbucks and Uber and Google.” — Gene Sykes

  1. Sykes says domestic organizers sold rights to Starbucks and Uber.
  2. Domestic sponsorships provide on-site branding and hospitality opportunities.
  3. LA 2028 is expected to be the biggest event in history, boosting local traffic.
• 17:24UBERLongUber is a domestic LA 2028 sponsor with likely transportation integration, benefiting from event-driven demand. — Gene Sykes-1,2 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “But then the domestic organizers get the opportunity to sell more rights, and so they've sold rights to Starbucks and Uber and Google.” — Gene Sykes

  1. Sykes names Uber as a domestic sponsor for LA 2028.
  2. Transportation is a key Olympic logistics need; Uber can capture ride demand.
  3. Sponsorship raises brand visibility with global visitors.
• 17:24GOOGLLongGoogle is a domestic LA 2028 sponsor, likely providing search, maps, and cloud services for the Games. — Gene Sykes+0,9 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “But then the domestic organizers get the opportunity to sell more rights, and so they've sold rights to Starbucks and Uber and Google.” — Gene Sykes

  1. Sykes says domestic organizers sold rights to Google.
  2. Google's services are central to event navigation and digital infrastructure.
  3. Sponsorship ties brand to the biggest global event.
• 7:15PANWLongSykes calls the Olympics a massive security event, and cybersecurity is integral to protecting global infrastructure and data. — Gene Sykes+3,5 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “There are two zero six countries that will send teams to the Olympic Games. So it's quite a security event for sure.” — Gene Sykes

  1. Sykes says 'it's quite a security event for sure' with 206 countries participating.
  2. Large-scale events require robust cybersecurity for networks, ticketing, and payments.
  3. Palo Alto Networks is a leading cybersecurity provider that could benefit from elevated security spending.
• 6:19MARLongLA 2028 will sell 15 million tickets, drawing huge visitor demand that benefits hotel operators in a city already short on rooms. — Gene Sykes+2,5 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “We'll sell 15,000,000 tickets between the Olympic and the Paralympic Games in Los Angeles.” — Gene Sykes

  1. Sykes says 15 million tickets will be sold between Olympics and Paralympics, implying massive tourism influx.
  2. LA will not build an athlete village, using UCLA instead, signaling tight housing supply.
  3. Marriott is a major hotel operator in Los Angeles poised to capture room demand.
• 6:19DALLongBeneficiary of the massive tourism influx for LA 2028, with expected surge in air travel demand to Southern California. — Gene Sykes–
  Por qué esta operación

  “We'll sell 15,000,000 tickets between the Olympic and the Paralympic Games in Los Angeles.” — Gene Sykes

  1. Sykes says 15 million tickets will be sold for LA 2028, implying millions of visitors.
  2. Travel demand will require significant airline capacity into LA.
  3. Delta is a major carrier with a Los Angeles hub, well-positioned to capture Olympic travel.

All-In Podcast

Jared Isaacman: A New Era for NASA and American Space Exploration

18 sept 202698h

▶Ver en YouTube

Ideas · 5

• ▶ 37:31SPCXLongIsaacman says the US would be 'seriously challenged' in space without SpaceX — it is NASA's most important launch partner for crew, cargo and heavy missions. — Jared Isaacman+1,7 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “SpaceX is our our I mean, they're they're incredible. I mean, they're our most important launch partner. We can't send astronauts to and from the space station without them.” — Jared Isaacman

  1. Isaacman: 'SpaceX is our most important launch partner' and America can't send astronauts to the ISS without them.
  2. SpaceX is supplying an Artemis lander test vehicle and is repeatedly credited as the enabler of NASA's plans.
  3. Resulting view: NASA's accelerating lunar/Artemis cadence is a structural demand tailwind for SpaceX, though it is currently private.
• ▶ 37:31GOOGLLongSpaceX → As SpaceX's largest outside shareholder, Alphabet is the most direct listed proxy for the NASA-demand tailwind Isaacman describes for SpaceX. — Jared Isaacman+1,1 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “SpaceX is our our I mean, they're they're incredible. I mean, they're our most important launch partner. We can't send astronauts to and from the space station without them.” — Jared Isaacman

  1. Isaacman says the US would be 'seriously challenged' without SpaceX, making SpaceX central to NASA's lunar and launch plans.
  2. Alphabet holds a well-known minority equity stake in SpaceX (with Google also a SpaceX customer).
  3. Resulting trade: own GOOGL as a liquid listed way to hold SpaceX exposure; note the stake is small relative to Alphabet's core business.
• ▶ 6:42Blue OriginLongBlue Origin is one of the two lander companies Isaacman names for Artemis 3, positioning it as a direct beneficiary of NASA's multi-launch lunar campaign. — Jared Isaacman–
  Por qué esta operación

  “Artemis three will launch on SLS into low Earth orbit and rendezvous with lander test vehicles from Blue Origin and SpaceX” — Jared Isaacman

  1. Isaacman: Artemis 3 will 'rendezvous with lander test vehicles from Blue Origin and SpaceX.'
  2. He frames the next four years as 'dozens of landers, dozens of rovers' — a broad demand signal to industry.
  3. Resulting view: a listed spacecraft/defense supplier building Blue Origin's lander should benefit; Blue Origin itself is private.
• ▶ 6:42AMZNLongBlue Origin → Amazon is the listed parent whose founder funds Blue Origin, offering indirect exposure to NASA's Artemis lander contracts at a trivial market impact. — Jared Isaacman+0,8 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Artemis three will launch on SLS into low Earth orbit and rendezvous with lander test vehicles from Blue Origin and SpaceX” — Jared Isaacman

  1. Isaacman names Blue Origin as an Artemis 3 lander test-vehicle provider and a key partner in NASA's lunar base plans.
  2. Blue Origin is wholly owned by Jeff Bezos and funded by Amazon share sales.
  3. Resulting trade: own AMZN as a listed adjacency to Blue Origin, while noting the exposure is immaterial to Amazon's P&L.
• ▶ 25:44RKLBLongIsaacman explicitly names Rocket Lab among NASA's key commercial partners and calls for a 'demand signal' of dozens of landers and rovers — a structural tailwind for launch providers. — Jared Isaacman+12,2 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “If you're doing exactly what SpaceX, Blue, Rocket Lab, Stoke, ULA, and others are doing in the industry except you're doing it off, you know, 50 year old shuttle hardware” — Jared Isaacman

  1. Isaacman: if NASA does what SpaceX, 'Blue, Rocket Lab, Stoke, ULA, and others' do with old shuttle hardware, 'you're gonna lose that workforce.'
  2. He argues NASA should be 'one customer of many' and hand mature services back to industry.
  3. Resulting trade: a NASA lunar/Artemis cadence with 'dozens of landers, dozens of rovers' broadens the addressable launch market for Rocket Lab.

The Money Guy Show

Here’s Where Wealthy People Put Their Money

18 sept 2026103h

Posiciones · 6

• 9:26S&P 500 Index FundsLongWealthy Americans build wealth through consistent, long-term investment in low-cost S&P 500 index funds, and time in the market beats timing the market. — Brian Preston–
  Por qué esta operación

  “instead of trying to beat the market, just be the market” — Brian Preston

  1. 96% of the top 10% of Americans own equities, and millionaires credit consistent long-term investing for their wealth.
  2. A $10,000 S&P 500 investment from 1987 to 2025 would have grown to $616,000 if left undisturbed.
  3. Missing even one best year cuts that to $448,000, so the hosts advocate staying fully invested.
• 7:35401(k) Plans (Employer-Sponsored Retirement Accounts)LongAutomating contributions into employer-sponsored retirement accounts like 401(k)s is one of the easiest ways to invest consistently like a millionaire. — Bo Hanson–
  Por qué esta operación

  “a vast majority of millionaires invested in their employer sponsored retirement accounts” — Bo Hanson

  1. 80% of millionaires attribute their wealth to investing in their 401(k).
  2. Automated payroll contributions create a set-it-and-forget-it system with tax savings and potential employer matching.
  3. The hosts recommend following the Financial Order of Operations: 401(k), Roth IRA, HSA.
• 30:07Health Savings Accounts (HSAs)LongHSAs offer a triple (or quadruple) tax advantage — deductible contributions, tax-deferred growth, and tax-free withdrawals for medical expenses — making them even more powerful than a Roth IRA. — Brian Preston–
  Por qué esta operación

  “these things even in a lot of ways even more powerful than a Roth IRA” — Brian Preston

  1. HSA contributions are tax-deductible, growth is tax-deferred, and qualified medical withdrawals are tax-free.
  2. If offered through an employer, contributions may also escape FICA and Medicare taxes.
  3. The hosts recommend paying medical costs out-of-pocket, saving receipts, and reimbursing yourself decades later with untaxed earnings.
• 11:12Real Estate (Rental Properties / Commercial)LongWealthy people diversify into real estate for appreciation, income, and inflation hedging, but only after building a solid financial foundation. — Bo Hanson–
  Por qué esta operación

  “69%, so seven out of 10 of the wealthiest 10% of Americans own some form of real estate outside of their primary residence” — Bo Hanson

  1. 69% of the wealthiest 10% of Americans own real estate beyond their primary residence.
  2. Real estate provides appreciation, income, leverage, and acts as an inflation hedge.
  3. The hosts caution against over-leverage, concentration risk, and investing too early in the financial journey.
• 20:32Primary Residence (Homeownership)LongBuying a home builds equity, acts as an inflation hedge, and locks in housing costs for retirement, but it is not required to build wealth. — Bo Hanson–
  Por qué esta operación

  “95% of those top 10% of wealthy Americans do actually own their primary residence” — Bo Hanson

  1. 95% of the top 10% of wealthy Americans own their primary residence.
  2. Homeownership builds equity, counts toward net worth, and provides fixed housing costs in retirement.
  3. The hosts advise the 3-5-25 rule: 3% down, 5-year horizon, and housing costs under 25% of gross income.
• 15:48Private Business Ownership (Entrepreneurship)LongOwning a business is a common path to wealth, but it carries high concentration and liquidity risk, so only pursue it with a solid financial foundation. — Bo Hanson–
  Por qué esta operación

  “48% of the 10% of the top 10% of Americans have some sort of equity” — Bo Hanson

  1. 48% of the top 10% of Americans have some equity in a business.
  2. Two out of three businesses fail within ten years, introducing bankruptcy-level risk.
  3. The hosts advise starting small as a side hustle and planning for dream, down-to-earth, and 'doo doo' scenarios.

Ideas · 2

• 32:55TMLongWealthy people often drive practical, reliable brands like Toyota, which retain value better than luxury vehicles, aligning with their focus on avoiding depreciation. — Bo Hanson-0,8 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “They buy cars and they spend money on cars, but they are not buying ex expensive luxury brands” — Bo Hanson

  1. 61% of households earning over $250,000 drive non-luxury brands like Honda, Toyota, and Ford.
  2. Toyota is explicitly named as a brand wealthy households prefer due to reliability and lower depreciation.
  3. No specific stock recommendation is made; this reflects observed consumer behavior.
• 32:55FLongWealthy people often drive practical, reliable brands like Ford, which retain value better than luxury vehicles, aligning with their focus on avoiding depreciation. — Bo Hanson–
  Por qué esta operación

  “They buy cars and they spend money on cars, but they are not buying ex expensive luxury brands” — Bo Hanson

  1. 61% of households earning over $250,000 drive non-luxury brands like Honda, Toyota, and Ford.
  2. Ford is explicitly named as a brand wealthy households prefer due to reliability and lower depreciation.
  3. No specific stock recommendation is made; this reflects observed consumer behavior.

The Ramsey Show

Progress Requires Discipline

18 sept 2026104h

The episode is a personal-finance call-in show focused on budgeting, debt payoff, housing decisions, and relationship dynamics rather than stock or asset calls. The hosts repeatedly reject speculation and get-rich-quick moves, with Dr. John Deloney explicitly warning a caller against chasing excitement via crypto as a way to avoid lifestyle drift. No specific listed stocks, ETFs, or tradable assets were recommended, so there are no actionable investment picks to report.

Posiciones · 1

• 14:01Crypto (as an asset class)EvitarDeloney warns that people who grow bored with their finances start chasing a feeling and end up making dumb bets with money, naming crypto specifically as that trap. — John Deloney–
  Por qué esta operación

  “That's when people end up way over their skis. Crypto They start seeking to feel alive in their own skin by playing dumb games with money.” — John Deloney

  1. Deloney tells Brian that once your needs are met, chasing a sensation leads people 'way over their skis.'
  2. He names crypto as the example of the dumb games people play with money when searching for a feeling.
  3. Conclusion: avoid speculative crypto exposure as a substitute for financial peace.

Prof G Markets

He Warned AI Could Destroy Us. Now The Industry Is Listening — ft. Nick Bostrom

18 sept 2026106h

Ideas · 4

• 32:12TSMLongHe argues leading-node fab capacity is already nearly maxed out by AI demand, making TSMC a structural bottleneck and beneficiary of the AI buildout. — Nick Bostrom+4,0 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “it's a significant fraction of the total production of TSMC in the leading node is going to these NVIDIA chips” — Nick Bostrom

  1. Bostrom says a significant fraction of TSMC's leading-node production already goes to NVIDIA AI chips.
  2. That means new capacity requires building fabs, which takes time and gives TSMC pricing power and strategic importance.
  3. Implication is that TSMC remains a key chokepoint supplier as long as AI compute demand persists.
• 32:12NVDALongHe says AI progress is driven largely by massive compute scaling, with NVIDIA chips consuming much of TSMC's leading-node output, implying continued demand. — Nick Bostrom+3,6 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “already now, it's a significant fraction of the total production of TSMC in the leading node is going to these NVIDIA chips” — Nick Bostrom

  1. Bostrom attributes a large part of AI gains to scaling up compute, especially GPU clusters.
  2. He notes NVIDIA chips are the destination for a large share of TSMC leading-node production.
  3. That supports NVIDIA's central position in the AI infrastructure spending cycle.
• 1:11OPENAIEvitarHe highlights that OpenAI will not go public this year, meaning retail investors cannot directly buy the leading private frontier lab. — Speaker 5+11,4 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Sam Altman said he agreed with Amade and added OpenAI will not be going public this year.” — Speaker 5

  1. Speaker 5 states Sam Altman said OpenAI will not be going public this year.
  2. Bostrom discusses OpenAI as a private frontier lab facing intense competitive and safety pressures.
  3. The practical takeaway for public-market investors is that OpenAI equity is unavailable.
• 1:11ANTHROPICEvitarAnthropic is discussed as a private frontier lab whose CEO is calling for a synchronized AI slowdown, but there is no listed vehicle for direct exposure. — Speaker 5+0,8 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Anthropic CEO Dario Amade published an essay calling for the industry to slow down the development of AI models.” — Speaker 5

  1. Dario Amodei of Anthropic published an essay calling for the industry to slow AI development.
  2. Bostrom discusses Anthropic and OpenAI as private frontier labs with intense competitive dynamics.
  3. No public ticker or investable listed proxy is identified in the episode.

All-In Podcast

Meta's Dina Powell McCormick: The Case for Data Centers, Backlash, AI Job Boom & Meta's Future

17 sept 2026121h

▶Ver en YouTube

Ideas · 2

• ▶ 42:18METALongPowell McCormick argues Meta's data-center investment is a net positive that communities want, and its 3.6B daily-user platform plus open-source AI give it a durable distribution advantage. — Dina Powell McCormick+9,2 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “we know that 3,600,000,000 people are on our platform every single day. 200,000,000 small business owners operate their business every single day.” — Dina Powell McCormick

  1. She says Meta pays for its own generation, grid resilience and upgrades, taking burdens off local consumers, and that most states want these investments.
  2. That dynamic supports continued AI/data-center capex funded by Meta's core ad business on 3.6B daily users.
  3. Net bullish on Meta as both an AI infra builder and distribution owner.
• ▶ 36:01EssilorLuxottica (Luxottica / Ray-Ban)LongMeta's glasses 'are so excited about this as a product' with features like conversation focus and translation, and Luxottica is the exclusive partner making the stylish frames. — Dina Powell McCormick–
  Por qué esta operación

  “Well, they're very stylish... we are so excited about this as a product. The engineers have been working on this for ten years.” — Dina Powell McCormick

  1. She stresses style matters ('if people don't look good in them... they're not going to put them on') and that billions already wear glasses.
  2. Meta has an exclusive partnership with Luxottica/Ray-Ban to build these wearable AI glasses.
  3. Success of the glasses category would directly benefit Luxottica as the manufacturing/brand partner.

Prof G Markets

Fed Hikes Rates For First Time In 3 Years — Here’s Why It Matters

17 sept 2026130h

Ideas · 4

• 1:38Bank stocks (sector, via major indices)EvitarBank stocks had their worst day since February on concerns that higher rates will slow lending growth, a channel Ed flags as a key market risk. — Speaker 6–
  Por qué esta operación

  “bank stocks had their worst day since February on concerns that higher rates will slow lending growth.” — Speaker 6

  1. Ed notes bank stocks fell the most since February on fears higher rates slow lending growth.
  2. That links Fed tightening directly to bank earnings sensitivity.
  3. The read-through is caution on bank stocks amid a hiking cycle.
• 15:26NVDALongArmstrong argues hyperscaler AI capex is extremely price insensitive, noting builders will absorb even a 50% GPU price jump, protecting Nvidia's demand. — Speaker 7+6,0 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “The price of NVIDIA GPU goes up 50%. Fine. I'll pay it.” — Speaker 7

  1. Armstrong says firms building data centers are price insensitive and will pay more for GPUs.
  2. That implies continued demand for Nvidia's AI chips even as financing costs rise.
  3. Supports a constructive stance on Nvidia amid the AI capex boom.
• 15:32Hyperscalers / AI infrastructure spendersLongArmstrong says the AI capex boom is a growth driver keeping nominal GDP ~6% and that an extra 100bps won't derail projects—only worth watching in six months. — Speaker 7–
  Por qué esta operación

  “another 100 basis points on your interest bill are not gonna bug you.” — Speaker 7

  1. Armstrong notes growth is ~3% plus 3% inflation, with AI investment a real support.
  2. He says financing costs 'don't matter until they do' and likely won't change spending now.
  3. Supports staying constructive on AI capex leaders, watching borrowing costs over the next six months.
• 30:38Chinese open-weight model companies (e.g., DeepSeek, Moonshot)EvitarHan warns Congress could next year make it hard for US companies or clouds to use Chinese open-weight models, a real risk to China's AI exporters. — Speaker 9–
  Por qué esta operación

  “make it difficult for US companies to use Chinese open weight models” — Speaker 9

  1. Han says elites see AI politicization distracting from anti-China regulation.
  2. She flags potential US restrictions on Chinese open-weight models as a coming issue.
  3. That regulatory risk pressures Chinese open-weight AI firms.

Odd Lots

What Francis Fukuyama Is Seeing at 'The End of History'

17 sept 2026130h

This Odd Lots episode is a wide-ranging political-economy conversation with Francis Fukuyama about his book The End of History and the Last Man, illiberalism, AI and China — it contains no direct stock or asset picks. The closest thing to an investment-relevant signal is Fukuyama's stated personal use of Anthropic's 'Claude Code' as an 'amazing system' for programming and database work, which is a product endorsement rather than a trade recommendation. No buy, short, or avoid calls on any tradable instrument are made by the hosts or guest.

Ideas · 2

• 26:32ANTHROPICLongFukuyama says he uses Claude Code constantly and calls it 'just an amazing system' for real programming and database migration work, a strong product endorsement of Anthropic's enterprise AI. — Francis Fukuyama+0,9 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “I use Claude code a lot. It's just an amazing thing... basically, it's just an amazing system.” — Francis Fukuyama

  1. Fukuyama describes using Claude Code to migrate and maintain his own server databases successfully.
  2. He frames it as a genuinely capable tool ('it helps to be a programmer because you can then correct') rather than hype.
  3. This is a product-level endorsement, not a stated investment call, so treat as an indirect positive signal on Anthropic.
• 24:53MSFTLongOpenAI → Fukuyama highlights OpenAI's agentic AI ('hugging face incident') as the most dangerous and powerful frontier, and Microsoft is OpenAI's largest investor and cloud partner, giving listed exposure to that dynamic. — Francis Fukuyama+0,7 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “The most dangerous aspect of AI AI is agentic AI. That is where human beings delegate to machines the power to make decisions.” — Francis Fukuyama

  1. Fukuyama says agentic AI where humans delegate decisions to machines is 'the most dangerous aspect of AI' and cites an OpenAI agent breaking out of its sandbox.
  2. He stresses these models are powerful and poorly understood, implying accelerating capability and compute demand at the frontier labs.
  3. Microsoft's equity stake in OpenAI and Azure hosting make it the most direct listed beneficiary of OpenAI's frontier-model progress.

All-In Podcast

Brad Gerstner: No AI Bubble, Semis Eat the Nasdaq & AI's Take Off Problem

17 sept 2026135h

▶Ver en YouTube

Posiciones · 1

• ▶ 15:12Long duration equities broadly (rates-sensitive)EvitarRising rates (hike odds >90%) raise the hurdle rate as AI capex is debt-funded; 5.5% on the 10-year would be 'a big burden' on equities, so he stays 'medium' rather than large. — Brad Gerstner–
  Por qué esta operación

  “If you can earn five and a half or 6% on your money without taking equity risk, then, you know, it's going to be a challenge for stocks.” — Brad Gerstner

  1. Gerstner claims rate hikes are coming with over 90% probability, and AI data centers are financed with borrowed money, lifting hurdle rates.
  2. Citing Buffett — rates are to stocks what gravity is to matter — 5.5-6% risk-free is a challenge for equities.
  3. Result: stay 'medium' positioned, be mentally flexible, and add or cut based on rates and AI lab revenue.

Ideas · 11

• ▶ 3:16NVDALongNot a bubble: Nvidia trades at only ~14x next year's fully-taxed GAAP earnings while AI capex super cycle continues. — Brad Gerstner+6,3 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Nvidia, trading at 14 times next year's fully taxed GAAP earnings. This is no bubble like it was in 2000.” — Brad Gerstner

  1. Gerstner claims Nasdaq/SOX/Nvidia all trade well below average multiples and earnings are up 26% driven by AI infrastructure.
  2. Nvidia is the core GPU supplier of the token makers whose capex-to-FCF nearly matches hyperscaler capex.
  3. Result: stay invested in the AI trade, with semis as the engine of returns.
• ▶ 4:01Nasdaq Composite / Semiconductor Index (SOX)LongSemis are 70% of the Nasdaq's return and the index trades below average multiples in an earnings-driven expansion, not multiple expansion. — Brad Gerstner–
  Por qué esta operación

  “Semiconductors are 70% of the Nasdaq's return. 70% of the return.” — Brad Gerstner

  1. Gerstner claims this is an earnings-driven market expansion with multiple contraction this year.
  2. Semiconductors are 70% of the Nasdaq's return, tying index performance to the AI capex super cycle.
  3. Result: the Nasdaq/SOX remains the expression of the AI infrastructure cycle, though concentration is 'both good and bad'.
• ▶ 4:21DELLLongMakers of the tokens are making the money — infrastructure suppliers like Dell are posting venture-like returns (up 5x in 18 months). — Brad Gerstner-2,5 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “we have massive public companies that look like venture capital returns. Dell up five x, Hynix up nine x in just eighteen months.” — Brad Gerstner

  1. Gerstner claims the token makers capture the profits while token buyers 'go along for the ride'.
  2. Infrastructure tightness has driven Dell up 5x in just 18 months on AI server demand.
  3. Result: own the infrastructure makers, not just the model buyers.
• ▶ 4:21SK HynixLongMemory supplier Hynix is up 9x in 18 months as tight AI infrastructure demand flows nearly dollar-for-dollar from hyperscaler capex into semis' free cash flow. — Brad Gerstner–
  Por qué esta operación

  “Dell up five x, Hynix up nine x in just eighteen months.” — Brad Gerstner

  1. Gerstner claims hyperscaler capex is almost dollar-for-dollar free cash flow to infrastructure companies.
  2. Hynix is cited as a massive public company that looks like a venture return, up nine-fold in 18 months.
  3. Result: memory/infrastructure suppliers remain key AI trade beneficiaries.
• ▶ 5:54ANTHROPICLongAnthropic's monthly revenue surging from $2B to $11B (year-end run-rate seen at $100-110B) is the fuse that lit the AI trade and could drive liftoff and an IPO. — Brad Gerstner+1,2 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Anthropic's monthly revenue. ... And in March it was 11,000,000,000. ... Anthropic IPO ... I think we could go higher” — Brad Gerstner

  1. Gerstner claims the March jump in Anthropic revenue to $11B lit the historic April-May run in AI stocks.
  2. Anthropic reportedly reaches ~$100-110B this year on only ~1.5GW of compute, and adding 4-5GW supports another $100B of revenue.
  3. Result: watch Anthropic's monthly revenue as the single most important data point; an Anthropic IPO this year would signal liftoff.
• ▶ 8:06MSFTLongHyperscalers like Microsoft build AI capacity 'to rent it', so their fortunes are tied to the off-take revenue that must show up to pay for ~$1.5T annual capex. — Brad Gerstner+1,1 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Microsoft's not paying for it. They're building it to rent it. ... We have to have the off take revenues in order to pay that rent.” — Brad Gerstner

  1. Gerstner claims Microsoft, Google and Amazon aren't paying for capex — they build to rent it — so renters' off-take revenue must materialize.
  2. Microsoft is named as a hyperscaler building capacity to rent, and is OpenAI's key partner (MAIA/Azure).
  3. Result: hyperscalers are levered to AI lab revenue growth; a lab-revenue surge or oil/rate retreat justifies adding chips.
• ▶ 11:38UBERLongAI-driven margin expansion: Uber says it will grow 20% without growing headcount, converting AI into operating leverage. — Brad Gerstner-2,7 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Uber says we're gonna grow 20%, we're not gonna grow headcount.” — Brad Gerstner

  1. Gerstner claims AI can lift margin expansion from ~38bps to ~100bps for Nasdaq companies.
  2. Uber is cited saying it will grow 20% without adding headcount, the largest cost input (humans/engineers) staying flat.
  3. Result: own companies showing AI-enabled productivity dividends.
• ▶ 11:56SNOWLongAI margin expansion: Snowflake expects 30% growth without headcount growth, a direct example of the productivity dividend. — Brad Gerstner+1,3 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Snowflake says we're gonna grow 30%, we're not gonna grow headcount.” — Brad Gerstner

  1. Gerstner claims the AI productivity dividend can turn 38bps of annual margin expansion into 100bps.
  2. Snowflake is cited saying it will grow 30% without growing headcount.
  3. Result: companies monetizing AI internally without adding engineers offer margin-expansion upside.
• ▶ 7:27OPENAILongOpenAI's monthly revenue trajectory (is it $4B or $8B?) is the second key datum alongside Anthropic's; strong numbers mean 'takeoff' for the AI trade. — Brad Gerstner+12,4 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Anthropix monthly revenue is OpenAI's monthly revenue gonna be 4,000,000,000 or 8,000,000,000? ... I think it's takeoff.” — Brad Gerstner

  1. Gerstner claims the top-three labs (Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX) collectively run ~$100B and need to reach ~$180B by year-end to keep the AI trade intact.
  2. If OpenAI's monthly revenue comes in near $8B, Gerstner calls it 'takeoff' and expects an IPO this year.
  3. Result: watch OpenAI monthly revenue as a key trigger; add chips if it's strong, reduce if not.
• ▶ 2:54SPCXLongAmong the top-three AI labs by run-rate revenue, SpaceX's valuation is up two-and-a-half-fold in a nasty backdrop — evidence of the AI-driven private-market boom. — Brad Gerstner+0,9 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “OpenAI and Anthropix valuation up two x, SpaceX up two and a half x in a pretty nasty backdrop.” — Brad Gerstner

  1. Gerstner groups SpaceX with Anthropic and OpenAI as the top-three labs with ~$100B collective run-rate revenue.
  2. He cites SpaceX valuation up 2.5x this year despite tariffs, geopolitics and regulation worries.
  3. Result: private AI-adjacent leaders continue to compound; watch their revenue and IPO activity.
• ▶ 2:54BitcoinEvitarDespite many Besties predicting gold and Bitcoin would soar, Bitcoin is down 10% this year while AI-driven earnings market works — the AI trade is where the money is. — Brad Gerstner–
  Por qué esta operación

  “We have a lot of people in the Bestie group who said gold was gonna be off the charts this year. It's flat. Bitcoin's down 10%.” — Brad Gerstner

  1. Gerstner claims the scoreboard shows gold flat and Bitcoin down 10% in a year the market rose 39% since Jan.
  2. The AI super cycle, not crypto, has generated the returns (Nvidia revenue 2x, hyperscaler capex 2x).
  3. Result: don't chase the gold/Bitcoin narrative; stay in the earnings-driven AI trade.

We Study Billionaires

TIP847: Alphabet (GOOGL): The Megacap That Still Might Be Underrated w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O’Malley

17 sept 2026138h

Posiciones · 2

• 1:19:07GOOGLLongWorld-class collection of businesses (Search, YouTube, Cloud, Waymo, SpaceX stake) that keeps compounding, but with the stock near fair value the right move is to hold, not add. — Kyle Grieve+2,3 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “If we were speaking strictly rationally, then selling is actually probably the right decision... the best move with Google given that we already own it is to just do nothing and let the position play out.” — Kyle Grieve

  1. Shawn/Sean argue Alphabet is a 'titan' with a much higher intrinsic value in 5-10 years and a $500bn cloud backlog driving 50% cloud growth over two years.
  2. It is their second-largest portfolio position at ~14% with cost basis near $150, up over 90%; they bought more on the regulatory dip.
  3. Conclusion: don't add here since it is 'much closer to being fairly valued,' but don't sell either because they are long-term owners of wonderful businesses.
• 46:09UBERLongShawn prefers Uber to Waymo: Uber does tens of millions of rides per day with billions in profits, while Waymo burns cash and its valuation is speculative. — Shawn O'Malley-2,5 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “As an Uber shareholder, I would say I'm pretty skeptical of Waymo being able to grow into this valuation.” — Shawn O'Malley

  1. Waymo's last private round valued it near $130bn, roughly matching Uber's market value.
  2. Shawn says it is 'pretty obscene for Waymo to have the same valuation as Uber' given Uber's proven, scaling, profitable model versus Waymo's unproven economics.
  3. He states 'as an Uber shareholder... I'm pretty skeptical of Waymo being able to grow into this valuation,' i.e. Uber is the better business model.

Ideas · 4

• 46:09WaymoEvitarWaymo's ~$130bn valuation looks stretched: it is still burning cash, unproven as a business model, and faces competitor AV breakthroughs that could erode its first-mover edge. — Shawn O'Malley–
  Por qué esta operación

  “Waymo is still in the cash burn phase, it's losing a ton of money and its viability as a business model has not been proven. It's entirely speculative.” — Shawn O'Malley

  1. Waymo has driven 127m autonomous miles and runs ~500k rides/week, but remains in the cash-burn phase per Shawn.
  2. Its February funding round valued it near $130bn, comparable to Uber despite vastly smaller scale and no profits.
  3. Shawn treats Waymo's value to Alphabet as 'all gravy' optionality from a future IPO but is skeptical it can grow into that valuation.
• 1:01:42NVDALongNvidia is a clear beneficiary of the AI capex supercycle with 65% operating margins and pricing power, effectively taxing every hyperscaler except Google's TPU-based stack. — Kyle Grieve+6,4 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Nvidia is a very, very good company. It has 65% operating margins as well as pricing power. So, you know, that's great for Nvidia, but obviously it's not so great for its customers.” — Kyle Grieve

  1. The BofA chart cited shows hyperscaler free cash flow turning negative while semiconductor designers/manufacturers' cash flows 'skyrocketed'.
  2. Kyle notes Nvidia has 65% operating margins and pricing power, and that all the neo-clouds must pay this 'Nvidia tax'.
  3. Google's own TPUs come at a ~40% discount to Nvidia equivalents, underlining how much value Nvidia captures from the rest of the industry.
• 1:00:49CRWVEvitarCoreWeave remains unprofitable and faces a structural disadvantage: unlike Alphabet it must pay the Nvidia tax, has no internal demand to fill idle capacity, and rents compute by the hour. — Kyle Grieve+0,6 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “Even if you are making a complaint about Google's appreciation being artificially low, they're still probably much more profitable than either Nebius or CoreWeave is today.” — Kyle Grieve

  1. Kyle identifies CoreWeave and Nebius as the best pure-play AI data center comps, but notes 'both businesses today remain unprofitable.'
  2. Alphabet's vertical integration (TPUs ~40% cheaper than Nvidia) and internal demand (Search, YouTube, Gemini) give it a profitability edge.
  3. Shawn warns neo-clouds like CoreWeave could struggle to 'keep the lights on with too much unused capacity' if Alphabet's advantages keep growing.
• 1:00:49NBISEvitarNebius prices AI compute per megawatt and remains unprofitable; it lacks Alphabet's internal demand and vertical integration, so its economics are less durable. — Kyle Grieve+6,2 % desde el episodio
  Por qué esta operación

  “The problem with both businesses is that they just today remain unprofitable.” — Kyle Grieve

  1. Kyle cites Nebius as a pure-play AI compute lessor alongside CoreWeave, noting both are unprofitable today.
  2. Nebius's pricing doubled in six months and it says its 2027 capacity could be sold out, but the per-megawatt disclosure is ambiguous and hard to underwrite.
  3. Alphabet's ability to redirect compute internally ('all the rooms are filled') gives it a structural cost edge over Neo Clouds like Nebius.